One event from last week bumps the odds to 90 percent that it's on.
Another bit of news drops that to 70 percent.
The bump up is related to what looks like bad news for Kenny Boy.
Paxton, per a NYT interview in Dallas, has already talked to people close to The Donald about getting his kiss of anointment. In fact, he had to be reminded by a "campaign" advisor that he hasn't officially announced his campaign yet.
The bad news?
Paxton's aides get $6.6 million in whistleblower suit is the story.
Of course, he's appealing it. It wouldn't really hurt him in a 2026
U.S. Senate general election, but in a primary against Big John Cornyn,
it will be a lead anchor. Maybe.
That said, per The Barbed Wire, if NYT's grab of internal GOP polling is accurate, will Cornyn even run?
It puts Paxton ahead of Cornyn right now.
Given the change in administration, Cornyn's early 2024 jibe to Paxton about running from jail is now moot. And mute.
Cornyn will be 76 years old next year. That's actually not old by the standards of the gerontocracy of the current US Senate. But, he's watched Mitch McConnell fall apart over the past 12 months. Betty Crocker Diane Feinstein die in office. Other members age out more and more.
So, given those polling numbers, it drops back to 70 percent.
If Big John pulls out early enough, does anybody else major jump in? Sid Miller might. Former Land Commish Jerry Patterson might pull a contrarian run. Bushies in Texas, whether family members or otherwise? Not a chance.
And then, who runs to replace Kenny Boy?
Not major, but John Bash has announced his candidacy for AG.
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