Germany looks like it could implode after the next election

That thought is triggered by learning that the Christian Democratic Party made a deal with far-right populist part Alternative für Deutschland to get an (anti-)immigration bill passed.

I didn't know that until I read that long-time former Chancellor Angela Merkel rebuked her successor as CDU party leader Friedrich Merz, who last November:

(Explicitly pledged to prevent the AfD from playing a decisive role in Bundestag votes. “This proposal and the stance associated with it were an expression of great state political responsibility, which I fully support in its entirety,” she added.

Well, guess that's no longer a working statement.

With just three weeks until that general election, this can't help the CDU. It's going to expose rifts within the party and probably will not peel any significant votes away from the AfD. Beyond that, Merz did NOT make a deal with the AfD on stopping the flow of arms to Ukraine, part of why AfD, per the story, is now polling second in election polls.

Related? Current Chancellor Olaf Sgt. Scholz ("I see nothing! I hear nothing! I know nothing!, Col. Hogan." on either Israeli genocide or Russia-Ukraine issues) has also responded, saying that a return to the "grand coalition" currently governing the country ain't happening. That piece adds that the Free Democrats joined with the CDU/CSU to pass the anti-asylum measure. Hold on to that.

So, what DOES happen on, and after, Feb. 23?

First, look at the current polling:

While noting that the current government coalition, per Wiki, is Scholz's SPD, German Greens (warmongers on Ukraine, and AFAIK Zionist genocidalists on Gaza) and one independent.

The SPD has "held steady" over the past six months, but, earlier than that, per Politico's polls, had declined a bit from one year ago. Greens at 13 percent are where they were a year ago. (Both fell behind AfD about 18 months ago.)

My guess, if the polls were held today? Greens move up from current 117 to, say, 125. SPD drops from current 207 to 180. That total of 305? Would current German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier sign off on a coalition government that small? No more than 42 percent of the Bundestag? The fact that Scholz brought up a "grand coalition" only to deny it shows that he doesn't think it's likely.

The BSW and die Linke aren't likely to join. Per Scholz's own comments, he would have to rule out the FDP also, would he not?

So, where does that leave things? Polls and my guesses say that the BSW falls from 10 down to, say, 5, and die Linke gets up to 35. We'll bump the 8 "non-attached" to 10 in a fragmenting Bundestag. I'll give the FDP 100. I'll give AfD 100 as well. I'll say that with "overhangs," the next Bundestag is at 735 total seats. All other parties are at 555, leaving the CDU/CSU at 180, off their current 196. And, those calculations also don't take into account what effect Elmo Musk's months-old hard-on for the AfD, now doubled down on again, will have. It's likely to be beneficial, but by no means guaranteed.

If the CDU bites the bullet even more, it, the AfD and the FDP together have an outright majority, if a slim one, at 380. The top story link references what could happen, or sort of does, near the end:

With just weeks until the federal election, the fallout from the vote has further polarized the race. Merz now faces a choice: Double down on his rightward shift or attempt to reassert the CDU’s firewall against the AfD — a decision that could define his political future.

But, that surely shatters the party, as in shatters it officially, with enough desertions to put the remainders in a minority and presumably drawing a no-confidence vote.

Would the two left groups partner with AfD and FDP in some sort of truly weird grouping? That's still just 240, far away from getting a coalition nod. The left parties aren't coalitioning with the current SPD-Green bloc unless those parties change their stance on the two foreign policy issues, also not likely, since Sholz blew up the Bundestag rather than change stances on weapons for Ukraine and the funding thereof.