Who wins? My thoughts

As I've said all over the place, I voted for the Commie because I wasn't doing Jill Stein.

That said, Claudia de la Cruz mathematically can't win, and Jill Stein won't anyway.

So, it is between Kamala is a Zionist Cop and Dementia Don, aka Too Disorganized to be a Real Fascist Trump.

Who wins?

Going with Allan Lichtman and his 13 Keys, and what the likes of Cajun Conehead Carville have said in the last couple of weeks, I predict the Zionist Cop wins, in part because I think most the swing states tilt her way, and go her way in the end. In fact, I think the only one she'll clearly lose is Michigan, precisely because she is a Zionist Cop. Even though Stein refused to name an Arab-American from Michigan as her Veep, I think the endorsements she has still put it in Trump's lap eventually. This piece from Mondoweiss confirms that. Interestingly, per that link, he sees just four keys going against Harris, while in early September, he saw five, which means that, post-DNC bounce fading away to the side, he must see this breaking for her a bit.

So, it's off to 270 to Win and its interactive map. And, here's my answer, without resetting every medium blue or medium red to full red, after starting with where it was three days ago:

So, why, on the explainer?

Pennsylvania? I do think, despite Harris' organizational clusterfucks there, that "Kill Tony" and his Puerto Rican racism will hit hard here. Next to it, I see little chance that medium-red Ohio swings, but, there may be enough backlash on the "cat-eating" that the GOP has to play some defense there.

Michigan? Already described above.

Wisconsin? I think the Democrats, despite bitching about Greens, hold serve enough. And, SCOTUS said Brainworm Bobby stays on the ballot both there and Michigan.

Aridzona and Nevada? While Democrats' share of Hispanic votes continue to tumble, I think it will remain solid enough. Both states' Republican parties, meanwhile, have internecine struggles between Trump and non-Trump factions, and especially in Aridzona, between wingnuts and wingnuts squared within the Trump world.

Georgia and North Carolina? I'm splitting them on a hunch. We'll say that Elmo Musk's lies about hurricane aid, and people's willingness to believe this, reflect something there. Georgia? Although Hispanic voters are becoming more important, it's still a big Black voter state that I think breaks Harris.

Finally, other than Michigan and reapportionment of electoral votes after the 2020 Census, this exactly reflects the 2020 map.

Update: No, Harris isn't getting 400 EVs. But, if that Des Moines Register poll even partially reflects a national shift, could she do as well as 2012 Obama? Yes.

In reality, we all lose.

This close of a race will be an invitation to election denialists in Trumpworld. Fortunately, he's not the incumbent.

Second, Harris' Overton window moving is probably not just an election policy. From what I've heard, beyond Gaza, to things like Lina Khan at the FTC, it's real.

Third, this close of results means that, even if Democrats regain the House, it's gridlock on everything outside of Israel on foreign policy and on most domestic policy.

Fourth, the GOP will continue to lose after the election denialism is done. The stain of Trump won't wash out by 2026, and probably not even 2028. And, hell, who knows? Short of a McDonald's fatal heart-attack or coma-inducing stroke, he could decide to run again in 2028.

Fifth, if Kamala is a Zionist Cop DOES lose? I've already started lining up, mentally, though not yet on paper, the reasons she will have lost when the usual tide of Democrap bullshit comes up.

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Update, per Brains' comment.

Yes, I got it wrong. And yes, you got it right.

Yes, I already knew in Pennsylvania especially, and somewhat in the other "blue wall" states, that her ground organization wasn't that strong. I thought Trump's was enough worse that this wouldn't be critical. 

I probably could have seen that shifting that Overton Window too far right, namely, in explicit campaigning with Republicans and leaning into their comments would backfire.

Otherwise? Per your piece? Other than Michigan, no, Gaza probably didn't crush her campaign. Sadly,  no. Maybe you think I'm cynical with such a thought. No, that's just skepticism, from where I stand. Most Americans don't give a fuck about most the rest of the world.

That said, per the likes of Samra'a Luqman, it appears to have brought a new round of Bernie ⇒ Trump voters, for different reasons than 2016. (I know then that they were less than PUMA ⇒ McCain voters in 2008; not sure what this year's numbers will say, if anybody even parses them.

Other than the general Overton Window? James Carville, who tried to peddle his snake oil, and yes, I'll admit, may have gotten me to stare at the bottle, though not actually drink, said 32 years ago, "It's the economy, stupid." And, no, the economy isn't as good in many place as some talking heads say. 

As for Biden being the most progressive president since FDR? For all his faults on Vietnam, and other things, no, I'll still take LBJ. We can agree to disagree.

I should maybe have thought about Harris' support among working-class Black men, since they started to question Dear Leader at his second election run in 2012, as I noted a month ago.

But? I also called you out on Twitter.

You voted for an investments hypocrite. She is, and she was eight years ago, and the hypocrisy is made worse over Gaza. You were wrong then, and you're wrong now. And, we won't relitigate that here. Suffice it to say that, even though I'm not a Commie, that's part of why I voted for one. (The fact that everything leading up to Stein being a three-time retread shows the GP is past its best-buy date is another. Let me know if the party avoids a nominee who plays footsie with antivaxxers in 2028; ditto for Texas Greens not nominating another antivaxxer fellow traveler in 2026, while I'm there.)