So, why did I get it wrong on my prediction?

Yes, I got it wrong, on my presidential prediction post last week, as Brains liked to remind me. And yes, you got it right.

Yes, I already knew in Pennsylvania especially, and somewhat in the other "blue wall" states, that her ground organization wasn't that strong. I thought Trump's was enough worse that this wouldn't be critical. I'll get to that thought more below.

I probably could have seen that shifting that Overton Window too far right, namely, in explicit campaigning with Republicans and leaning into their comments would backfire, and backfire too much to be overcome, as lackluster Democratic turnout proved.

I said in a Substack note that, despite Democrats' attempts to avoid 1968 problems, this was like 1968 — at least as far as the actual electioneering. Sadly, this DNC, even though it didn't go fully virtual, had no protests.

Anyway, Harris was kind of like Hubert Humphrey, following a one-term president who unwillingly stepped aside. Of course, the Hump had a three month head start and was at least partially vetted in primaries. And, as Jeff St. Clair notes, unlike the Hump with LBJ, she never even tried to separate herself from Biden. (Scarily, he may be right that Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro — IF he's re-elected in 2026 —becomes a 2028 Democratic favorite.) And, as I already knew, per Sy Hersh, the Hump was a better Veep, and a better retail politician in general. Harris couldn't even see the need to break free from Biden.

Obama at least had the additional excuse of appointing someone older, Whiter, and being perceived as more establishmentarian, to try to defuse at least bits of the “angry Black man” meme that some Democrats, as well as many Republicans, may have had in 2008.

What Biden thought Harris offered the ticket, of any 2020 Democratic candidate, whether those who stayed in primaries or those like Harris who dropped out early, I have no idea. Harris may not have been a “DEI candidate, but, IMO, the perception was going to be there, along with Biden’s other pledges, such as that he would nominate a Black woman to the Supreme Court.

I read about Elon Musk's GOTV work and no on-the-ground staff, allegedly. Binoy Kampmark said that The Pustulence Scott Presler actually did some stuff. And, per the second paragraph from the top, Mike Elk was among the people who missed this, and he lives in Pennsylvania, which is where Elk is from. So, Mike, YOU blew it. Great labor reporter, but you veered into cheerleading on election-specific posts. I saw that at the time, on the cheerleading, and probably, because of that, should have been more skeptical about your eyesight otherwise. (Update: Elk NOW links to a Latino vote split post-mortem, but still hasn't offered his own Pennsylvania analysis. And, no, requiring white-collar journalists in office five days a week isn't union-busting. https://paydayreport.com/bezos-cracks-down-on-washpost-union-key-western-pa-county-improves-dem-dems-soul-search-on-latino-voters/

For that matter, Klippenstein dropped a piece after voting for the lesser evilism half of the duopoly. He lives in Madison, Wisconsin, which, like Pennsylvania, flipped because of her crappy campaign.

Otherwise? Per your piece, Brains?

You don't think it was the genocide, do you? Nah. Must've been something else, like resentful Black men or sexists/misogynists in general or maybe it was Joe Biden, the most progressive president since FDR, not stepping aside soon enough. It probably wasn't affordable healthcare or the economy or climate change, of course. I'm sure the autopsies performed by the Democratic braintrust will figure it out in the coming days. Or weeks. Or months.

Other than Michigan, no, Gaza probably didn't crush her campaign. Sadly,  no. Maybe you think I'm cynical with such a thought. No, that's just skepticism, from where I stand. Most Americans don't give a fuck about most the rest of the world. I've been called cynical before, when I was just practicing good skepticism.

That said, per the likes of Samra'a Luqman, it appears to have brought a new round of Bernie ⇒ Trump voters, for different reasons than 2016. (I knew then that they were less than PUMA ⇒ McCain voters in 2008; not sure what this year's numbers will say, if anybody even parses them.) As I said there, though, I still perceive people doing this, rather than Bernie ⇒ Stein, as people cutting off their nose to spite their face. In that case, schadenfreude is a bitch and that poisoned chalice is yours. You did vote for Trump, rather than a third-party candidate and Democrats’ lies that you voted for Trump.

Other than the general Overton Window? James Carville, who tried to peddle his snake oil, and yes, I'll admit, may have gotten me to stare at the bottle, though not actually drink, said 32 years ago, "It's the economy, stupid." And, no, the economy isn't as good in many place as some talking heads say. 

As for Biden being the most progressive president since FDR? For all his faults on Vietnam, and other things, no, I'll still take LBJ. We can agree to disagree. Or just disagree. To be honest, I'm surprised you think that. I really am.

Let's take the Inflation Reduction Act. Two years ago, my town was on the list for the first year's buildout of electric vehicle charging stations after the Federal Highway Administration approved TxDOT's buildout plan. Two years later, there's not even been a site chosen, let alone a contract let. And, Brains, you know that the Dems' Green New Deal is pretendian, and that Biden has been letting NEW oil and gas leases offshore as well as on land since then. No federal protection for Roe in the pre-Dobbs first two years of his admin. No minimum wage hike, etc etc.

I should maybe have thought about Harris' support among working-class Black men, since they started to question Dear Leader at his second election run in 2012, as I noted a month ago.

But? I also called you out on Twitter.

You voted for an investments hypocrite. She is, and she was eight years ago, and the hypocrisy is made worse over Gaza. You were wrong then, and you're wrong now. And, we won't relitigate that here. Suffice it to say that, even though I'm not a Commie, that's part of why I voted for one. (The fact that everything leading up to Stein being a three-time retread shows the GP is past its best-buy date is another. Let me know if the party avoids a nominee who plays footsie with antivaxxers in 2028; ditto for Texas Greens not nominating another antivaxxer fellow traveler in 2026, while I'm there.)