No, Juan Soto is not a $500M generational talent, let alone $600M

His agent, the notorious Scott Boras, wants you to think so, as he talks $500M (non-deferred value) for Soto's next contract (more at The Athletic) after he enters free agency next year. So do some fanbois of either Soto or Boras.

But, he's not.

Update: And, now that we're at the start of the World Series, unless some dumb GM comes along, he's definitely not a $600M talent.

As I said in various comments on the Reddit post where I saw that?

So far, entering his age-25 season, Juan Soto has had 1 7-WAR year and two at 5.5.

Mike Trout, at the same age, already had two 10-WAR and three 9-WAR years.

Mookie Betts, going through his age-25 to count it, had a 10.5-WAR, a 9.5-WAR and two 6-WAR seasons.

And, Shohei Ohtani (when arm-healthy to pitch as well as bat) is all that.

Part of Soto's falling short is that he simply is not a five-tool player. Trout and Betts are. And, of course, Ohtani, when pitching, is a unicorn equivalent of that. And, Soto never will be a five-tool player. He's not a base stealer, and he's generally not that fast. He's below average on outfield range factor and maybe average on arm strength for right field. 

There's a video at the top link of Soto's "game winning throw" in the season opener. Or you can watch here:

He's in medium right field, no deeper, when he gloves the hit. The throw is a one-hop throw, and also about four feet up the line. He still got the guy out. Why?

Because the Astros' third base coach knows Soto's fielding reputation and decided to challenge him. Against at least half the right fielders in the league, that runner is held at third all along.

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UPDATE, June 27: Playing in the Mets' deep RF, Soto has struggled defensively — and heard about it, from Keefers Hernandez in the press box.

UPDATE, Oct. 22: As the Boras-led contract possibility puffing continues, let us take note that Soto came oh-so-close, but fell short of 8 WAR again, despite playing right field half the year in the Friendly Confines, for him, of Wrigley Field.

And, yes, technically, SOME of baserunning is not hitting, per discussion on Reddit. But, baserunning skills from the batter's box? Yes it is. Beating out grounders contributes to batting average. Turning singles into doubles or doubles into triples contributes to slugging percentage. Both contribute to OPS, OPS+ and oWAR and other things. 

Besides all of this? Bor-ass didn't claim Soto was a generational hitter. Nor did he claim he was a generational offensive player. He claimed he was a generational talent. And, he's not. Is he among the best of the generation? Yes. King of the hill? No.

And, if you claim Pujols roided? Or Berkman? Or Edgar Martinez? Or insinuate? Bye. That Dum Fuq claimed that Pujols' end-of-career resurgence proved he was roiding. Really? Then why not do it five years earlier?

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Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if he were DH-ing by age 30. And, per WAR, that has a positional anti-scarcity angle on offensive WAR issues, and a ding for dWAR automatically.

Setting aside pre-25 vs post-25 on age? Here is all the players that have posted at least one year of 9 WAR or above since 2020. Lemme know when Soto joins that.

As for a future contract? Yeah, some GM will overpay.

Especially if a junior GM at Reddit becomes a GM. The stupidity at r/MLB, where I posted this, is rampant. People talking about the short right field porch at Yankee while ignoring OPS+, WAR, etc. are park-neutralized. People claiming fielding for a corner OF is overrated. People ignoring just how bad he is in the field. People claiming that, at just at age 25, they can project out his post-30 aging curve.

And, when I pointed out Jim Edmonds as a comp on some issues, on the issue of fielding and other things, one fucktard insinuated Edmonds was roiding.

Said chud posted an old piece from r/baseball that he claimed was support, as shown at left. It doesn't. Yes, the cutoff is 4 WAR, not 7, which Edmonds had.

That was after me posting a LONG list of people who were above 10 WAR when they got older, off this B-Ref page with every WAR value, in order, by player, age and season. I went with age-30, instead of 34, because that's where he originally started from, a blanket statement that everybody declines after 30. No they don't. Beyond that? Small sample size on his part.

Chud got butthurt in addition because I included pitchers, even tho his chart backs me up!

Beyond that, I'd never before heard insinuations about Edmonds roiding, so he's full of shit right there. So are a couple of others who are blocked. And, this is going to be expanded, this section, into another post.

Some people there know the facts on Soto's fielding skills or lack thereof. And, as I explained the lay of the land on that play at the plate, a lot of cases, Soto doesn't make that. And, B-Ref notes negative 4/yr on total fielding zone runs and -2/yr on defensive runs saved.

Oh, while we're here, for people who don't get sabermetrics (but like to call others "grandpa")? On the batting side? Runs from positional scarcity is -27 overall, or negative 3/yr. So, combine that with whichever of the two defensive stats one uses, and he costs either 5 or 7 runs a year compared to the typical RF. (Also, under advanced batting, he's slightly below MLB average on how often he takes an extra base, like going from first to third when the batter behind him singles.)

Finally, as far as aging curve and other things? He has NEVER to date done as well as his age 21 and 22 seasons in Washington.

But, especially per the part about likely moving to primary DH by 30 or soon thereafter?

First, I wouldn't give him more than eight years, not 10.

Second, if we put him as a 6-WAR player at $7M/WAR, that's $40-45M, not $50. 

Add it up? If I'm a GM, I give him 8/$325-350 (roughly what teammate Aaron Judge has) with opt-outs after year three and then year five or six. I certainly wouldn't give him 10/$460 (non-deferred value) of Ohtani, which I think itself is an overpay, as we don't know what his pitching return will be like.

And, Redditors? Lemme know when he has an 8-WAR season, let alone a 9-WAR one. Then, we'll talk about generational talent. 

And, mods deleted it because it's "just a blog." Really? Fansided is "just a blog."