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December 19, 2023

Buddy, can you spare $700 million? For Ohtani, or the Dodgers?

Everybody else is writing about Shohei Ohtani's record-breaking contract with the Dodgers, so why shouldn't I?

First, per the header? I think it's a big fat overpay. Got in an argument months ago with a chud on r/mlb about the success rate of pitchers coming back from two TJs. Yeah, the second is not a "full TJ," but still. IMO, he'll be a batter-only player by the time he and Dodger Blue are halfway through that 10-year contract.

I add in a blog post from this summer about "the cautionary tale of Jacob deGrom." Even if he's still raking like currently, that alone should knock the contract down to $50M/year.

That said, as everybody knows by now, this contract is massively eferred

Second, this is Los Angeles. They don't need Ohtani on the team to goose fan numbers, so scratch that.

Third? Does Mookie Betts now think he's underpaid? Regret not having an opt-out clause in his contract? Speaking of? Mookie Betts' best two years by WAR are better than Ohtani's top 2.

Fourth, re small-market teams? Rich teams should not be allowed to defer payments on a contract just to dodge the lux tax line. That's doubly true as we learn the deferment is $68 million per year of the $70M. It's more ridiculous than NFL contracts with guaranteed vs non-guaranteed money. (Question: How much do small-market teams bitch during discussions for the next CBA? How much do mid-tier free agents, if they think about it?)

Yeah, Ben Lindbergh at The Ringer, in his 17 Questions about Ohtani's Contract piece, says that this won't really benefit big-market teams. But, he adds that the current MLB language requires a team to have money to make good on a deferred payment structure within two years of the deferred money starting to kick in. Good luck with that, small market teams.

That said?

Fifth, re small-market teams? MLB needs a salary floor as well as a lux tax line, soft cap, whatever. For the A's/Las Vegas Whazzups, Rays, Marlins, Royals, etc.? If you don't maintain an MLB payroll of $80M or whatever? You get dinged revenue sharing money in future years. Or docked draft choices. Or other punitive actions. After all, the whole point of revenue sharing is that small market teams have extra money to spend to be competitive. (Question: How much do big-market teams bitch during discussions for the next CBA? How much do mid-tier free agents, if they think about it?)

Sixth? After he IS back pitching in 2025, I'd laugh if he joins Clayton Kershaw on the playoff pitching flops roster.

Seventh? If Arte Moreno has an ounce of brains, he looks to trade Mike Trout and accept that it's time to rebuild.

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