More thoughts on RFK Jr. running as an independent

Ten days ago, I wrote about the planned leak of RFK Jr.'s big announcement for Oct. 9, which is, of course, today, and the leak indicating that he will indeed run as an independent.

Update: It's now official, per his campaign event. Not the best of timing, but he didn't know any more than Bibi Netanyahu, and with far less reason to know than Netanyahu, about the Hamas attack in advance.

Bob Jr., per the story, does have political smarts. He's targeting Georgia, Texas and Florida. The former is definitely a swing state; Bob in the latter two could put them more into play.

With his announcement now official, GOP attacks confirm they're worried.

Update, Oct. 10: Bob Jr.'s Super PAC has already raised $11M, and actually, that was just in the first six hours after the announcement. AND, in a sign that he's definitely more right than left, he (technically, PAC head Tony Lyons) is reportedly courting Smelling Musky, aka Elon Musk, his own self. AND, the majority of American Values money is from Republicans.

I noted, being old enough to remember Ross is Boss Perot's hurdles, and living here in Tex-ass, where ballot access petitioning for third parties or independent candidates is tough, that I still thought he would be better off staying independent rather than seeking the Libertarian nod.

There were three main reasons for that, and I've had thoughts further spurred by this and this post at Independent Political Report.

One is that he would just be seeking the Libertarian nomination, without guarantee of getting it. While hardcore Libertarians considered them Libertarian-lite, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr at least reasonably aligned with the LP. RFK has already said he doesn't on some things.

Fracking — and other environmental issues in general — are keystone with him, and of long standing, of longer standing than his antivaxxerism. He'd have to seriously compromise them to run as a Libertarian, and especially with the Mises types, that wouldn't be enough, while the degree of compromise would certainly earn him the Just.Another.Politician.™ label from me and probably many others. (That said, Beto of Boston has set aside his environmentalism before, for good NIMBY reasons that he was doubling down on five years later.)

The second is that, related to that, I think he'll actually run better as an independent. If he DID get the Libertarian nod, the Mises types would probably stay home. Some might openly undercut him. Plus, there's that "brand" issue.

The third is that, yes, it will be tough, but will it be THAT tough?

He's got the money to pay for compensated petition signing work where it's legal, and the name to attract volunteers where it's not. (More on that in a minute.) 

He's also surely got experience, from his time running Waterkeepers, an attorney for the Natural Resources Defense Council, and other environmental work, about getting initiative-type petitions on the ballot. And, he can also pay for people who will know the by-state calendar and rules.

That said, rules?

Per Ballotpedia, on paying people to get others to sign petitions, it's kind of a mess. Twenty-six states explicitly allow it, nine explicitly ban it, and seventeen, including good old Tex-ass, say nothing one way or the other. (Florida's the biggest "no" state; New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are the three biggest "unclear" states after Tex-ass.)

Here, because of the tight petition window, and it being a "red" state and by spring 2024, many Tex-ass Rethuglicans realizing that RFK Jr. is a bigger threat to Trump (sit down, other candidates) than to Biden, and with Kenny Boy Paxton the corrupt Trumpist AG, if Kennedy tried to challenge that, he's get legally ensnarled six ways from Sunday. But, he might just challenge it elsewhere. 

As for the money in getting paid to hold a clipboard? Ballotpedia covers that, too.

Joseph, at the first IPR link, ask if paid signature-gatherers can work more than one petition at a time. I don't know, but suspect the answer is yes.

Finally, again, since I voted in a 2022 primary, I can't sign RFK Jr.'s petition. Even though I won't vote for him, I would sign if I could, though, on general principle.

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Update, Nov. 1: Of interest and possible campaign concern? On Oct. 13, just days after his announcement, Bob Jr. booted Dennis the Menace Kucinich to the curb as his campaign manager, and replaced him with his daughter-in-law, who looks about as wacky as Bob himself. Besides the nepotism issue in general, a campaign that had looked fairly well-oiled up to this point will probably face extra scrutiny on those grounds.

I wonder if Dennis the Menace, wacky enough himself at times, had been some sort of restraining factor on Bob Jr., like on the pro-life stuff, where since then, has touted Auntie Angie's House, which, reading between the lines of this:

Our mission is to eradicate the Black Maternal Health Crisis through research, advocacy, support, education, and awareness.

Presumably believes in the "abortion is Black genocide" trope.

Given that he's grifted on the actual wrongs of the Tuskegee syphilis experiment to target American Samoa, Somali immigrants in Minneapolis and other people of color with his antivaxxerism, Bob Jr. may actually be a self-gaslighter on the "abortion is Black genocide" issue. As a 2-star overall book I just read notes, in 2021, Bob Jr.'s Children's  Health Defense released the film "Medical Racism: The New Apartheid." Add in that Bob Jr. has buddied up with Tony Muhammad of the Nation of Islam, and there you are. (How he squares this with blank checks for Israel, I don't know.)

Update, Nov. 8: Bob Jr. is also a Cold War 2.0 Cold Warrior, per this Tweet, getting a boner for the project just like his uncles. And, why is an alleged environmentalist so worries about global oil control rather than talking about wind and solar power to boost electric car usage, or transitioning toward walkable cities, etc.?

Update, May 9, 2024: Bob Jr. is now a fucking BIG OLD GASLIGHTER on abortion! He and Veep nominee Nicole Shanahan were both on Sage Steele's podcast, him some time back, her a bit later. Bob said that abortions should be allowed the full nine months; the podcast was pre-recorded. Steele then asked Shanahan about that when interviewing her. Here's what Bob said, when Sage pushed:

“Even if it’s full-term,” Kennedy said in response to a follow-up question. “I don’t think it’s ever OK,” he added. When Steele said that would allow late-term abortions, Kennedy said, “I think we have to leave it to the women rather than the state.”

And, here's Nicole:

“My understanding with Bobby’s position is that, you know, every abortion is a tragedy, is a loss of life,” Shanahan said. “My understanding is that he absolutely believes in limits on abortion, and we’ve talked about this. I do not think, I don’t know where that came from.”

Oops.

But wait, it gets better!

Despite being on YouTube AT Angie's House:

Bobby Boy has deleted his campaign Facebook post and at least one other site with him talking about that visit and video. (The actual video ain't his.)