The worst possible GOP outcomes for both now and 2028, to riff on this Politico piece about all the main 2024 candidates and this one about how the cascade of indictments will hurt Trump in the general?
Trump gets the 2024 nomination and loses. And, assuming he doesn't stroke out from his "215 lbs" weight, he runs AGAIN in 2028. Even if from a jail cell; the Constitution doesn't ban it, and Eugene Debs, with much more rightness, did it in 1920.
First? Odds of Trump being this year's Republican nominee? Short of death, 10-1.
Second, despite the low ratings of Inflationmonger Joe, per the second link in the second paragraph? 3-2 against. So, we have a 60 percent chance, rounding that 10-1 up to 100 percent, of this indeed happening in 2028.
With that, we look at some of this year's field and four years ahead.
Now, to the various Never Trumpers.
Haley would be out of office and off the radar screen four more years, unless she can get elected to something else in 2026. Huckleberry J. Butchmeup, aka Lindsay Graham, has his Senate seat up in 2026. But, he's said nothing about stepping down. And, if Haley fought him for that and won, she'd look horrible turning around to run for president.
Pence, ditto on out of office, and would have four more years to not have an actual backbone.
Tim Scott? His Senate term is expiring, and unless he drops out of the prez race early to get into a new Senate race, he's out of office. He too could run against Huckleberry, but, see above.
Asa Hutchison? Older, not coming back in 2028.
Chris Christie? I can't see him getting enough traction this year, and like others above, he'll be another four years out of office by 2028.
Doug Burgum? Keep an outsider's eyeball on him. That said, as the Bakken oil continues to dry up, if he's re-elected North Dakota governor, he could have a state fiscal black eye in 2028.
Of candidates not in this year's race? Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would be the person to keep your eyes on. (Contra the first link, I do NOT expect Youngkin to try to do a late parachute into the 2024 race; he's way too smart for that, from what I see of him.)
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be past her second term and term limited, but leaving at the start of 2027 frees her up. She could have appeal to a mix of Trumpers plus DeSatan-like Super Trumpers on the COVID issue. Contra NPR saying no national name, she does have it within the GOP, and was a Congresscritter before becoming governor.
Would Lil Marco or Havana Ted consider another shot at the brass ring in 2028? Not if Trump is in it again; I think both would be seen as 2016 damaged goods, still, within the GOP. Both might perceive themselves that way vis-a-vis standing up to Trump. And, Cruz would have Jan. 6-related baggage, too. Nobody else from Tex-ass will enter the race.
Other than the above, among current GOP governors, Never Trumper Chris Sununu is the only one who might be on a 2028 A list. Of course, his "do as I say, not as I do" for this go-round may not stand him in good stead for 2028, though he can always cite a crowded 2024 field, and we'll see what happens with the "first in the [Republican] nation" primary.
Trumpian Mini-Me Ramaswamy would look like even more of an empty suit if he tried the Running In Name Only a second time, per that second link.
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The nightmare will likely be compounded in one way. Despite Never Trumper darling Nikki Haley's relative nuance, for today's GOP, on abortion, and despite Trump's own nuance, "federal full ban" thoughts are likely to dominate the party and perhaps become platform language. Both Trump and the Religious Right will do their best to swallow their mutual cognitive dissonance, but, probably with less success than in 2016 and 2020. But, NOT with zero success.
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