The Pentagon leak about Ukrainian and Russian capabilities

Don't have too much say about it that the best of some leftists skeptical of the US waging a proxy war have had to say. (I wonder how Ukrainian fanboi Eric Draitser is handling this at Counterpunch or elsewhere.)

The best place for an in-depth dive is Simplicius. Grayzone (yes, I know) has a solid basic summary that is itself not short. Photo files here on Google drive.

The big ticket question is: is this real, a deliberate US intelligence leak of misinfo before a Ukrainian spring offensive expected next month, or similar Russian misinfo? Both second and third elements are in play because some of the photos involved in the leak, as originally released on Telegram, were photoshopped, apparently by Russians. And, some of the "more credulous precincts of the left" that sometimes get overly non-credulous for the wrong reasons saw the New York Times publishing this stuff and wigged out about American empire, etc. (It didn't help that Smelling Musky was banning Twitter accounts sharing the info; more on that below, too.)

I think they're real, though bits of disinfo could still be sprinkled in by either Russia or the US.

The US/Five Eyes would want to make Ukraine either look even weaker than it is, or more, try to promote disinfo about the location of the spring offensive. Russia would presumably want to look even stronger, or share misinfo about its spring plans.

Otherwise, assuming this is largely true?

First, the Armed Forces of Ukraine look like shit. Per Simplicius and some of his links, if you're launching a spring offensive with that, with a fair chunk of your tanks being the same T-54/55 types that NAFO "fellas" were laughing at Russia for on Twitter a month ago, you're up shit creek right there. (Simplicius has a good post elsewhere looking at how this has become a social media war, which I have long known, with all the Ukrainian pix of girlchicks in fatigues, etc. I guess it's had some degree of success in Western capitals and recruiting green mercenaries.) You're even more up shit creek with little ammo for the tanks and artillery. And yet more with largely green cannon fodder to run this.

Second, behind this is Simplicius' analysis of just how loose of a leash Zelenskyy has via the US and NATO and more to the point, how much he keeps them in the dark. Subpoint is how much Ukrainian rogue forces are on a loose leash, as shown by things like the recent cafe bomb in Russia. Ukraine looks like a giant-sized Serbia circa 1912-14 in many ways, but with these rogue forces perhaps even more tenuous in their connection to the government than Serbia's Black Hand.

That leads to some rhetorical questions under two major groupings.

1. Assuming this is real, that AFU is indeed shit but the spring offensive is launched anyway, and is a glorious (Slava!) fail, what next? Will Zelenskyy double or triple down on begging for munitions and will he be successful? Will Biden send even more kitchen sinks of stuff he can send without Congressional approval? Will he try for another Congressional appropriation? Will the House GOP resist?

2. What is a possible end game? Ukraine muddling more with approximately the same foreign support and this becoming a frozen war? Russia trying an assassination attempt? A Ukrainian coup/revolution?

Simplicius responds:

Partly it depends on what Russia does next, i.e. if they launch a back-breaking offensive afterwards to take advantage of the now gravely weakened AFU, and how successful this hypothetical Russian offensive will be. 

But the other more important thing is something I discussed at length in one of the recent articles, which is that the 2024 election cycle is coming up soon. It will be absolutely disastrous for Democraps to have a losing war on their record plaguing them like an open sore DURING the actual election campaign run etc. So this seems to imply to me that IF Ukraine fails this last hurrah, the Democraps will have to neatly tie this war up in any way possible by 2024. It will be an extremely uncomfortable season of questions for Biden or whoever is the candidate, during debates etc., if at that point Ukraine is on the verge of defeat, American Abrams tanks are seen burning on TV screens nation wide, etc. It will be an even worst scandal than the Afghanistan withdrawal. That means I believe by 2024 they have to wrap this up somehow, and I doubt they'll truly think deep down Ukraine stands a chance IF its new offensive fails spectacularly and breaks the armies back. That leaves the only other choice that they would have to push for a peace settlement desperately and urgently. Most likely they will attempt to force Zelensky to compromise to freeze the conflict even if "temporarily" so that a 'peace deal' can be spun in some way to look like a Biden victory. However they can then hope to continue pumping weapons and restart the war later on after the election is over. 

They will do this by basically telling Zelensky "don't worry, just give up Crimea, Donbass etc for now and after our election we'll support you for a new war effort." Basically it would be Minsk 2.0 all over again.

Related to this, and a few paragraphs up: Does Zelenskyy believe in / smoke all his own press clippings? Or rather, does he realize he's put himself up a creek without a paddle, or way too far out on a limb that he doesn't know how to get off of?

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Sidebar: John Helmer, often stimulating on current issues, though not always right, thinks they're US fakes. He says much of this is not actually secret, and notes the full month before the Pentagon objects. He also notes that the different pages of links have different secrecy classifications, even though all were issued in the same briefing.

Several issues.

First, is he dealing with the Photoshopped or the originals? Don't know.

Second, on the classification issues? Papers are re-classified all the time. Maybe some had different classifications earlier. Or maybe they all got their original classification some time before the briefng being referenced.

As for why? He offers two angles.

One is what Simplicius says: A US leak to gut more warmongering, or else a Ukrainian ops to grift for more weapons and ammo or else to head-fake Russia.

His co-host, George Eliason, may have "broken" many stories from Donbass. But, his Twitter feed is his best bio and he tilts wingnut. And, especially on retweets, he tilts REALLY wingnut. And, per his Twitter bio, he also has a Gab account. Not Truth Social, which nobody joins, but also not the Johnny-come-lately Parler. He's on Gab.

His co-host in a later segment, Alfred Vierling, flirts with global far-right people. And, TNT Radio has a fair amount of people like that, COVID denialists and more. It makes me wonder, just as Helmer has called out Sy Hersh for being a useful idiot for the US government a month ago, how much he's a useful idiot for other actors himself at times.

Beyond that, especially compared to some other things of his, this is both simplistic (his own speech on his podcast, in written words, without transitions to Eliason, would be no more than 300) and twosider. And regular readers here know I don't like either one.

And, with that, my early discovery new love for Helmer has pretty much been dissolved.

Update: The leak also lists US and NATO ally special forces inside Ukraine. That seems the type of stuff that would NOT be part of a disinfo campaign.

Update two: As the world knows, Massachusetts National Guardsman Jack Teixeira has been arrested on suspicion of being the leaker. Given what Snowden said years ago about looseness of controls and ease of security classifications, given the CIA leak several years ago and much, much more, this isn't surprising, should it pan out. And now, Helmer looks like he's either in full Dum Fuq territory (he didn't caveat his claims, as in, he did NOT say "they're probably fakes," or similar), or else a backdoor shiller for you know who.

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Sidebar 2: Re Musk scrubbing Twitter? Remember, he still wants Pentagon money to pay for Ukraine using Starlink. 

Sidebar 3: No, Mark Ames, this does not confirm Sy Hersh' fan fiction is true, either. Seriously, even though you're out the outs with each other in a lot of ways, did you and Taibbi infect each other with a case of teh stupidz back in your Moscow days?

Sidebar 4: Slava Ukraina shitposters like Barry Gander on Medium said nothing about the leak in hte first 72 hours.

Sidebar 5: If the Discord leaks source is true, OTOH, it would make me more suspicious. Why would Russia's FSB pair with Emiratis? On the third hand, the "leaking them all" is interesting. And, given what the AP says about US intelligence electronic counterintelligence leaking like a sieve for years, that would reinforce the "they're original."