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November 16, 2022

Texas 2022 election post-mortem

The Trib notes that some suburban "collar counties" that had been trending more blueish reversed that trend. Fort Bend County was the biggest reverser, of counties it samples, followed by Denton County, in my area, which had been close to getting purplish but now is not again. I continue to blame Beat-0 the Muleshoer. Denton is exactly the type of place he should have been not just doubling down on, but tripling down on, in his campaign. And, he never should have lost Tarrant, which turned slightly blueish in the two previous elections.

These things had downballot results, too. Tarrant County might have a Democratic county judge had Beat-0 spent more time there.

Meanwhile, Jamarr Brown, who is the executive officer for Gilligan Hinojosa on SS Democratic Minnow, openly admitted Dem leaders were a fail on GOTV and messaging. Hello, in that story, even Gilberto himself admits the party has problems. Turnout was at 47 percent, which the Trib gives a smiley face by noting that, while below 2018, it was better than previous midterms.

At the Monthly, Michael Hardy compares Texas Dems to Charlie Brown, as in, especially, of Lucy pulling away the football scenes. This:

Carroll Robinson, a Houston law professor and chair of the Texas Coalition of Black Democrats ... is one of several state Democratic leaders who told me the party needs to improve its campaign infrastructure, especially in rural counties, where it performed even worse than in 2018. But when consumers haven’t purchased your product for nearly three decades, it raises the suspicion that you are selling them a lemon. When Ford took its infamous Pinto subcompact off the market in 1980, it wasn’t because the company lacked a robust dealership network but because the Pinto had a well-documented tendency to explode.

Is all you need.

As far as "dealership network," Hardy notes that, despite Beat-0 the Pander Bear, Dems did WORSE in rural Texas than 2018. But, nobody, not Brown or Robinson, is talking about making Gilligan Hinojosa walk the plank yet. Well, Kim Olson, who lost the party headship race to Gilligan this summer, did just that, via retweet, but nobody's followed her lead. And, a Scott Uhl ConservaDem's idea of who should lead the party? Pass. Besides, as I noted at the time of that election, Olson herself is a hypocrite. And, yeah, per a political analyst in Hardy's piece, Dems are close to hitting permanent minority party status. That's between the old BS about "demographics as destiny" and the new BS about "nonvoters being sekrut Democrats."

As for the "bench" for 2024 to challenge Havana Ted, count Hidalgo out, IMO. The contracts cloud will probably still be over her head. The Castro bros will continue to take their hard passes. Nobody of the few Dems in the state Senate is interesting. Maybe a Clay Jenkins, not mentioned in that link two paragraphs above above, steps forward?

As for next year's Lege, Republicans appear to have added one seat in each chamber. Surely not enough for Tony Tinderholt to oust Dade Phelan as House speaker, but the extra seat on the Senate side will just embolden Danny Goeb more.

Forrest Wilder, in his run-Dems-up-the-the-flagpole-and-salute mode, blames GOP redistricting.

Dan Solomon goes worse and says Dems need a celebrity candidate. First, weren't Beat-0 and Loopy Lupe Valdez kind of that? Second, he ignores that Matthew McConaughey took a hard pass. As for ones he suggests? Gregg Popovich could be covered with Primo stench in two years. Eva Longoria ain't doing it.

Kuff weighs in with his own surprisingly good thoughts, starting with having some D officials from "battleground states" do a review of the Texas party, which he acknowledges isn't likely and also may only have a long-term, not short-term, solution. But, it's a good one. Look at how purplish Aridzona's become in relatively short time. Why can't Texas do that? He also notes that this may involved tougher federal action on the border and immigration, which Texas Ds may not like. Well, Aridzona's also a border state, and it's been turning purplish even in the face of all this. So, while Kuff I don't think intended it that way, that part could be seen as a bit of excuse-making for Texas Ds.

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At least Texas Dems aren't Texas Greens, who suck, full stop, and probably have no more plans to do real change than do Dems.

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Side note: Harold Cook, Democratic campaign whisperer and more, and apparently in ill health after a stroke a couple of years ago, is dead. Stace has a personal reminiscence

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If the likes of Greg Summerlin think critical race theory is some secret tool to make all white schoolkids hate themselves, to expand on his comment and my response? Greg, I'm glad you're an EX HCSO deputy. And, if you think Beat-0 was some wild-eyed radical, when did you leave the Republican Party? If you really think this is a problem with Democratic gubernatorial candidates? I give you, in order:

  • Republican-voting Tony Sanchez;
  • Chris Bell, Republican in sheep's clothing;
  • Bill White, bland national neoliberal apparatchik before becoming bland neoliberal Houston mayor
  • Wendy Davis, Capitol-connected insider and grifter
  • Loopy Lupe Valdez, a "centrist" Dem to the degree she had much in the way of articulated positions on anything, and ex-military and tough on crime
  • Beat-0 the Pander Bear.

There. You need not darken my doorstep again. And, a more detailed take on Summerlin's plaint is here.

9 comments:

  1. To win future statewide elections in Texas, the Democratic Party needs to nominate moderate, mainstream candidates who can appeal to both rural and urban voters. In short, our candidates should support legal (not illegal) immigration, border security, law enforcement, the military, low property taxes, civil liberties, investments in our infrastructure, better healthcare, and improvements to our educational system (while respecting parental input). Our candidates must support a person's right to own a handgun, shotgun, and/or hunting rifle, but should advocate for restrictions to military-style weapons (e.g., AK-47, AR-15). Our candidates should be pro-choice, in accordance with the guidance provided under Roe v. Wade. They should support renewable energy AND responsible oil and gas drilling (yes, we can both). Our candidates must also publicly reject the radical positions advocated by some members in the progressive wing of our Party (Critical Race Theory, "defund the police", transgenders in women's sports, socialism, open borders, etc.). In summary, if we want to win, our candidates must be tailored to the views of mainstream Texas voters.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You are describing a "ConservaDem" and Beat-0 WAS that candidate.

    You're also WRONG on many issues. Two are outstanding.

    Your strawmanning stereotype of CRT bears no relation to reality, as do most other anti-"woke" stances in that second-last sentence.

    "Responsible" oil and gas drilling would be coming as close to ZERO, especially on oil, as soon as we reasonably can.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gadfly, take a look at the Democratic candidates who have won statewide races in purple and red states. The thing they have in common is that their positions are a good fit for their electorate. Beto is more liberal than most Texans, especially rural voters, and thus couldn't gather enough support. Texas Democrats haven't won a statewide election in thirty years. We can either nominate more moderate (or even conservative) candidates who can appeal to both rural and urban voters, or we can just keep losing. It's as simple as that...

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  4. Greg, first, he's not some wild-eyed bomb-thrower, contra your caricature.

    Second, he's not distinguishably different from previous Dem gov candidates of the last 20 years.

    Third, he WON native Texans in 2018. It was Californicators who cost him. Don't believe me? Texas Monthly, Bud Kennedy and others have all noted this and I've blogged about that.

    So, statewide Dems can continue to lose by chasing rural ConservaDems, following your advice, or they can do a better GOTV in the suburbs.

    As for CRT? I've actually read the seminal book by its founder, which I highly doubt you have done, and will be blogging about your comments in more detail later this week.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Gadfly, I'd like for us to do both... do a better job of GOTV in the urban areas AND nominate statewide candidates who can get more support in the rural areas. As far as the suburbs, we can't just assume those voters will support our Democratic candidates. Biden won the suburbs because he was a moderate candidate running against an extreme, right-wing nut job (Trump).

    Anyway, we will just have to agree to disagree.

    ReplyDelete
  6. We will agree to disagree, and since it's my site, in such cases, I get the last word.

    Implying Beat-0 is a wild-eyed bomb-thrower in comparison to a "moderate" Biden is simply not true.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Gadfly, in response to your blog post and comments, I never said Beto is a "wild-eyed bomb-thrower" or a "wild-eyed radical". I just said he is more liberal than most Texans (and he is). Also, I never said CRT was "some secret tool to make white schoolkids hate themselves". I said CRT is a radical position (it is very controversial and divisive). If we want our candidates to win statewide elections, their positions must be supported by the majority of the electorate (CRT is not). That's all. Respectful disagreement is fine, but please don't misrepresent what I post. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  8. On Beto, no, you didn't say that, but, with the words you paint, it's a reasonable inference.

    On CRT, that's
    A. GOP talking points.
    B. Wrong.
    C. An issue not raised by any Democratic candidate this election cycle.

    If you want to be a Republican whisperer, go elsewhere. I've already said that in a dialogue like this, the last word will be mine. Because, that is what you're doing. You haven't (yet?) insinuated that CRT was being taught in schools or anything like that, at least.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Addendum: I already told you Beat-0 is NOT more liberal than most Texas DEMOCRATS.

    ReplyDelete

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