So, what IS causing inflation right now?

This is a moving snapshot, and an attempt to be a bit forward-looking, and a look at inflation overall. Different sectors will get a look in a bit of detail.

Overall?

Let's guesstimate:

• 25 percent sanctions on Russia, the invasion itself and related
• 20 percent Chinese COVID-Zero policies and related supply chain snarls
• 5 weather (esp. on foodstuffs)
• 5 percent US fuel refinery issues
  
• 20 percent pent-up consumer demand related to supply chain snarls
• 25 percent exploitation of this demand and of the 50 percent in the top half by businesses.

Now, a look at how this is playing out right now and could in months ahead.

Originally, beyond the oil price climbs, the war itself combined with drought in much of the US west of the Mississippi to drive up prices on wheat, sunflower products, canola products and a few other items. 

Fall rains coming in now mean that at least the southern half of the winter wheat belt in the US should have a good crop next year. Northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas remain dry right now, though.

But, more recently, a mix of Russia issues and fuel refinery issues have spiked the price of diesel. That's going to affect food and non-food transportation costs. A lot of Russian fuel, due to its grade, when imported here was refined into diesel. Since Warmonger Joe doesn't want to push for negotiations, some form of Russia-Ukraine war fallout on inflation will continue into at least early next year, even as Biden's options with Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases continue to diminish and he has almost no options on the diesel issue. How big of Republican gains we have in Congress, what that means for less Ukrainian arms bazaar spending and other things remains to be seen.

Chinese policies? Will not change with Xi Jinping getting a third term, pledging to remain committed to COVID-Zero and refusing to accept non-Chinese vaxxes into the country. As noted in a recent NYT op-ed, COVID-Zero is also about more than COVID — it's another tool of political and social control in Xi's quiver. One thing that would actually address that? A carbon tax PLUS carbon tariff climate change bill passing Congress, which would lead to "repatriation" of at least some manufacturing, or else some of it leaving China for other pastures. Fat chance of that happening.

Pent-up demand? If there's another resurgence of COVID — not so much here as in the Yangtze Valley or Guangdong — it will meet a temporarily irresistible object again. Solution? Stop buying so much crap you don't need, Americans.

Corporate greed? Neoliberal Joe has jawboned oil companies, and that's about it. Yes, they didn't totally work, but ... he's not tried Nixon's wage and price controls.