The Northern Ireland wing of Sinn Fein, the Irish nationalist political party, won a plurality in Northern Ireland local parliamentary elections Saturday. I don't know if somebody will coalition with it, or if it will form a minority government.
The big question is if Sinn Fein thinks it has the public backing to call for a union election with Ireland. If it does, the Good Friday accords, per that link, allow it.
No. 2 was the Democratic Unionist Party which of course would oppose that. No. 3 was the Alliance Party, which at one time was unionist but now takes a neutralist stance on this issue, indicating how things have evolved over 20 years.
The Ulster Unionists sagged badly, as did the DUP. (Sinn Fein actually won no new seats; Alliance was the big winner.) It appears the Northern Ireland Protocol has indeed kneecapped unionism.
Sinn Fein + Alliance + Social Democratic and Labor Party make a majority.
That said, per the Good Friday deal, unionists get the No. 2 leadership slot guaranteed if not in leadership. And, the DUP has already indicated it will pout and perhaps not fill the slot, thereby gridlocking the government, if London doesn't toss the protocol. This only makes the DUP look ever more reactionary. I mean, that's why the previous government fell, and the DUP lost major votes. If it continues this attitude, leaving the UK will happen. Guaranteed. It's just a matter of time.
Sadly, Unherd has a piece by a British academic similar to one I saw on The Conversation. Both tut-tut the idea of an early referendum. Both, after making pro forma statements about the DUP living in the past, say that it's really Sinn Fein living in the past. Both appear to be whistling in the dark.
That said, per what I said halfway through, while I'm not a British academic poo-poohing the chance of the "other union" happening by referendum, we really need to see what Alliance says. We really, really need to see what Alliance says if the DUP try to wreck the train and the train station.
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