Shohei Ohtani in post-2000 context

Now that we know Shohei Ohtani, with his two-way heroics, produced "exactly" 9.0 WAR this year, let's look at this in terms of not the best pitching ever, or the best batting ever, but by recent performances. And, by recent, I mean, the start of this century. I've already looked at just the VERY best post-WWII modern era performances and found him ... kind of wanting.

Who, in recent years, has done as well as him or better? And Baseball Reference is making it easy. Using its page for top single-season WAR, then hitting the "by year" column to put newest up top? BUT WAIT THAT'S NOT ALL as of Dec. 9, 2023.

To update info on Ohtani, he was at 9.6 in 2022 and 10.0 this last season, and he is now playing with Mookie Betts, who (see below) still has his top single season better than Ohtani's and in a virtual tie for second-best. And? He's stuck in a no opt-out contract that runs through his age 39 season, and that doesn't hit $35M, half of Ohtani's new deal, until 2028.

Oh, and contra somebody on Reddit who doesn't identify as a Yankees fan by flair but comes off as one? No, Betts' 2018 is not an extreme outlier, and no, not due to Alex Cora and possible cheating. His 9.5 WAR shows it wasn't an extreme outlier, as does his 8.3 here in 2023. That 9.5 was in 2016, before Cora got to Boston. Oh, not every Sox player had a career year in 2018. Jackie Bradley Jr. was much better in 2016, for example.

Alex Bregman, 9.0, 2019.

Mookie Betts, 10.7, 2018, and 104th best all time. That, of course, means that while Ohtani gave us the fun of two-way play, and had a very good year, well, it wasn't THAT good. Also 9.5, 2016.

Jacob deGrom 10.4, 2018.

Mike Trout, 10.5, 2012 and 2016, and above 9.0 other times.

Aaron Nola, 9.7, 2018.

Max Scherzer, 9.2, 2018.

Zack Greinke, 9.5, 2015, and 10.4, 2009.

Cliff Lee, 9.0, 2011.

Albert Pujols, 9.7, 2009, 9.2, 2008.

Adrian Beltre, 9.6, 2004.

Ichiro Suzuki, 9.2, 2004.

Randy Johnson, 10.7, 2002, 10.1, 2001.

Pedro Martinez, 11.7, 2000, and above 9.0 pre-2000.

I've omitted a big-headed Giants outfielder, a former Yankee, Ranger and Mariner friend of J-Lo, a bleached brunette Cub, and an A's first baseman who might be less obvious, for an obvious reason.

OK, so, even without them? Without known chemical enhancements?

Just since 2000, we've had 13 players with as good or better seasons than Ohtani. Six of them did it twice.

Update, Dec. 9, 2023: Even looking at his 10 WAR this year? Six have done better. And Johnson bested even that twice, as did Trout. Greinke's two best are also still equal or better to Ohtani's two best, like Betts.

This is part of why, on my previous post about Ohtani, I said, "let's see him do it again," before we put his name in too bright of lights.

Update, Dec. 9: 2023: And, yes, he did do it again, for a select pantheon. But, we know he won't do that in 2024, and I'm not holding my breath over 2025 or beyond.

Ergo, contra Ben Lindbergh at The Ringer, he's not totally a singular talent.

Or, to put it another way? His year may have been emotionally special. Sabermetrically special it was not, at least not THAT special. And, David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle and the other largely Dum Fuq types at ESPN baseball (largely excepting Jeff Passan) can shut up otherwise.

This will also partially address a commenter on my previous "You're No Babe Ruth" post. That's true even with him winning the MVP. As Red Satan's story notes, nothing in 2020 indicated something like this would happen. And, even his combined 2018-19 didn't show this much on the batting side, while also having his TJ surgery on the pitching side. Call me back in 9 months, midseason 2022 or so. Until then, let's not be Liberty Valance and printing the legends.

Some of these people turned out to not be THAT good. Cliff Lee, once seen as having a shot at the Hall, kind of hit a wall of nagging injuries his last year and semi-voluntarily retired. I think we know that that was a clear one-off by Nola. DeGrom may wind up permanently injury-wracked; also, not entering MLB until age 26, he's behind the curve on total WAR and counting stats. 

But, of those doing it twice? Martinez and Johnson are in the Hall. Pujols and Trout will be. Greinke already has a puncher's shot, and if he doesn't retire, and picks up two or three 1.5 WAR years, will complete his shot. Betts is on the way.

Sidebar: Doesn't this also show that a lot of people still underrate Zack Greinke? Sidebar 2: Had you forgotten about Cliff Lee? (That said, there's a kind of asterisk on him. His pitching WAR was 8.5 that year, but he raked enough for an extra 0.5 WAR at the plate.)