I'm now going to look at one case in microcosm: Tony Oliva.
First, he had under 50 WAR. Almost EXACTLY another Harold Baines.
I venture many voters said "but he had three batting titles."
I don't care if he won three batting titles. Bill Madlock won four and he's not in the HOF either, and he shouldn't be in the HOF either. (Madlock might be an even better comp than Baines.)
But, that started me to wondering.
And, here we go. Other players with three batting titles who probably aren't Hall-worthy.
Dead-ball days? Ross Barnes, Pete Browning. Barnes had a way-short career; dunno why. Most of it was short seasons with the pre-NL National Association. So, he's so far in the past that, even had he played longer, it might be hard to discuss him at all. Browning played longer, with somewhat longer seasons, but still is enough in the past to be hard to say much about.
Modern era? Joe Mauer. And, no, his 55 WAR, with half his career at 1B/DH, not Hall-worthy. True, the injuries not his fault. But, ditto for Buster Posey. Or, in the past, Ray Fosse.
Close? Willie McGee; two titles and a fourth place. Not a HOFer. Dave Parker, two titles and a fifth with five total top-10s. Not a HOFer. (Self-inflicted.)
True that it's not Oliva's fault he was stuck behind Bob Allison his first two years. (Allison had a 7-WAR season himself in 1963. He's actually not THAT distant of a comp to Oliva, for that matter. )
A 1972 season where his bad knees caught up to him spelled the end to his career. (And, the Twins maybe should have flopped their outfielding halves if playing Oliva in left instead of right would have helped his knees at all, with Allison then staying in right.) He led the league in slugging the year before that, and took his third batting title, but missed a quarter of the year. But, even before that, just one 7-WAR year, along with two 6-WAR ones.
Some pitchers allegedly claim to have feared to pitch to Oliva. They
apparently didn't tell writers that; the BBWAA never gave him more than
50 percent. Everybody on that original blog post is the same. Neither writers nor previous Veterans Committee incarnations could see themselves to saying they were "all that."
Final thought and another comp: Larry Walker, also of course, a right fielder, and who got in the Hall on his last year of BBWAA eligibility. Different injuries than Oliva, but a variety of nagging injuries that shortened his career. Also three batting titles! Two slugging titles, not one, and two OBP titles.
MUCH better defensive outfielder. MUCH better baserunner.
Three hundred extra games? That would give you 12 WAR; still leaves a 55-WAR Oliva far short of a 73-WAR Walker. (On that games played? Oliva is closer to Posey than Walker, and outside the top 500. He also played one-third fewer games than Parker, who had notoriously bad wheels, and Oliva was playing on natural grass. Just some sidebars on the injuries issue.) I could even throw in part of sitting behind Bob Allison for another 5 WAR. He's still at just 60 WAR.
You forgot to mention that Mr. Oliva led the league in hits five time, doubles four times, runs & slugging once, Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove winner, All-Star 8 years in a row until knee injury , 5 Top 10 MVP votes with 2 2nd place finishes (4th, 6th and 10th), a .304 career average on bad legs, .314 average in 3 post seasons and a Hall of Famer on 3 of 4 HOF metrics on Baseball Reference. Sounds like a winner to me.
ReplyDeleteGold Gloves are kind of overrated, as Fielding Bible awards show. That said, one Gold Glove? He was negative dWAR for his career.
ReplyDeleteLeading the league in hits four times? He swung at a lot of stuff. Never led the league in OBP.
In neither of his two second-place MVP votes, was he the second best player by WAR, not even when confined to batters alone.
The three of four metrics? It's really 2.5, not 3, looking at "Gray Ink."
And, even with bad wheels, there's that 43 WAR.
Hall of the Pretty Good? Definitely.
Hall of the Very Good? Probably.
Hall of Fame? Not in my book.
The line drives he hit were ropes. Even in upstate New York we were in awe of both he and Killebrew.
ReplyDeleteI don't doubt that Anon No. 2 is correct. That said, others have hit line drive ropes, and over multiple seasons, and still aren't HOFers.
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