Here's the case against.
First, the PEDing cloud. Big Papi reportedly tested positive in 2003. He then came up with his unique version of the BS in such cases, claiming "regional bias" led to the result being leaked. He later claimed to be "always afraid of chemicals."
Second? He played his career prime in a bandbox ballpark that drove his counting stats up. (He also went there at the same time eventual PEDing repeat offender Manny Ramirez was hitting his peak.) His OPS+, ballpark-adjusted, is just 141. WAR is also ballpark adjusted. For comparison, Albert Pujols, with the much-longer career, more time actually playing the field and suffering wear and tear, etc? Still has an OPS+ of 144.
And so, behind the gaudy counting stats, Ortiz has ... 55.3 WAR.
Never had a 7-WAR season. Even setting aside his defensive liabilities and the DH positional ding? He never even had a 7-oWAR season.
Sure, pitchers didn't want to pitch to him in Fenway, because he was a dead-pull hitter in a bandbox, even beyond the PEDing.
BBWAA younger voters claim to be eyeing sabermetrics more. We'll see how true this actually is. Contemporaneous first-ballot player, and rival, Alex Rodriguez also roided up, and not allegedly, possibly, or leaked, but also posted sabermetric numbers at the same time. (That includes nine 7-WAR seasons.)
Other than A-Rod, who, setting aside the roiding, likely would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer like "clean" versions of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, I don't see a single HOFer among first-year candidates. Mark Teixeira is, after A-Rod, the only first-year player over 50 WAR Jimmy Rollins? Hall of the Pretty Good, no more, and after Tex, the only first-year player over 40 WAR. (Oh, and while I'm here, nobody on the "Golden Days" veterans ballot deserves in AS A PLAYER, but who knows what various committee members will pull? And yes, Dick Allen? Not a HOFer. From the early era, yeah, let's get Buck O'Neil in for his contributions. Blast from the past Bill Dahlen is deserving. Ken Boyer is borderline of borderline.)
Non-players? Danny Murtaugh is WAY OVERDUE to be in as a manager. Two World Series. Had he lived, would have been the 1979 pilot as well. Re Murtaugh? An "interesting" piece here by Cooperstown Cred, who notes Murtaugh's health history and repeated retirements because of it, but does NOT take it into account in touting him. He links to Bill James, who likewise mentioned it but does NOT take it into account.
Back to Ortiz. Another way of putting it? A close comp on WAR, WAR7 and JAWS? Tony Perez. He went in on veterans vote. Scratch that. I had thought it was a Veterans Committee vote; instead, BBWAA voted him in. And probably shouldn't have.
One other thing for A-Rod, roider and neurotic though he is--
ReplyDeleteHis HOF number is 390, fifth of all-time behind Musial, Cobb, Ruth and Aaron. However, when he signed with the Yankees, he switched to 3rd base, even though he was a superior SS, to accomadate Jeter.
If he had stayed at Short and for instance Jeter moved to third, A-Rod's HOF would have increased by 45 (2100 games at short (30), 2100 games at short hitting above .275. This would put him at 435 HOF, 3rd all-time behind only Musial and Cobb.
If Jeter had switched to third, his HOF numbers would have decreased from 337 to 277. Switching to third masks how great A-Rod was. Not to mention that it had to be hard to learn on the job in front of the crankiest fans this side of Philadelphia.
As usual, excellent observations, Dave.
ReplyDeleteI've long thought that A-Rod, Bonds and Clemens all would have qualified for the Hall "naturally," and all as first-ballot inductees to boot.
Add in the muddle of their managers already being in ...