Cardinals free agency, pitching

Per MLB's official list of free agents, which include players with opt-out options in the middle of contracts, or team or player options for single add-on years, the Cardinals don't face a lot of problems.

Matt Carpenter? Gone unless he comes back a LOT cheaper. Team declined his option.

Nolan Arenado? He has officially declined his opt-out.

That's it on position players.

Pitchers?

Carlos Martinez? Like Carp, team has taken the buyout on club option and he's not coming back unless for less money. It might not be as big a haircut as Carp, but not coming back.

Andrew Miller? Gone. Midseason relief pickups? Almost certainly gone, as noted this morning.

Jon Lester? Likely gone, though an invite to spring training could be tendered.

Lesser pitchers? Gone, or back for dollar amounts too small to matter.

Since pitching is the main need, let's go there. I'll do a brief one on hitting in a week or so.

Max Scherzer? Would be a wonderful addition. But, even at nearing the tail end of his career, is he coming here for less than $30M a year? Ohh, likely not. With a COVID asterisk for 2020, the man has a full decade streak of 5 WAR or better years and has been largely injury free. That's why it would be great to have him, but it's also why, at his age, he'll still want, and command, more than $30M a year for three years. (Or hit $130M, it seems, with the Mets signing.)

Robbie Ray could be a great lefty addition. I said "could" and not "would," though. He's only had one really great year before this out of five full seasons, plus the 2020 COVID season and a two-thirds season his first full season. He's never pitched 200 innings in a season and this was the first year he hit 190. He's actually a "good" candidate for some team to overpay him. See "David Price" and 'overpaid lefties" in your baseball dictionary. That said, he did receive a QO from Toronto. (And, he's headed to the Mariners at 5/$115, illustrating what I said about lefty overpays.)

If one is willing to take a gamble, and note that he'd be a bit of a help at the plate if the NL avoids the DH, Zack Greinke if not too pricey would be good as well.

Or, if one wanted an interesting "flyer"? The Dodgers did NOT give a QO to Clayton Kershaw. He'd of course have to pass a physical, and even that, I couldn't see the Cards offering more than $15M. Some other team might go higher. The Angels, always struggling on pitching, are a likely destination. See below for related news! (That said, I think the Cardinals would be, oh, about option 5 along with many other teams after, in this order: A. Dodgers B. Rangers C. Retire D. Angels E. Cardinals and possibly a couple of other teams.)

A lower-priced lefty option? Steven Matz, maybe. (Oh, do NOT @ me with Matthew Liberatore. He was decent-good but NOT great at Memphis last year, which was his first year at AAA. People touting him are generally, IMO, in the Mo ass-kissing division; see link below.) UPDATE, Nov. 23: It IS the Cardinals, at 4/$44. Yesterday, in coments at MLBTR, to another Cards fan (I think) who was underpricing him, I said 3/$33, so I almost got it right. 

Am I happy about that? Not really. Matz is being paid for one above-average year and being a lefty; a budget Robbie Ray; see above. But, I haven't paid coin to see an MLB game live or on teevee for 20 years now, so no harm to my wallet. As for what he brings to the table? Yes, it's true that he's below league average on walks. Is he SO MUCH below league average that it's a real talking point? Not really, and not when Marcus Stroman is 10 percent or so lower. (I've put this and more into a separate post.)

That's if, per Bernie Miklasz's old pun, Mo gets DeWitt to put a crowbar in DeWallet. And, right now, per MLB Trade Rumors linking to an interview Mo did with Derrick Goold at the Post-Dispatch, he MIGHT spend on a Matz-level starter, and even that would be a shock. So, deal with it, all of us "junior GMs." And, a verbose commenter on that thread, "Postcards," is one of the Mo ass-kissers I blogged about on the Shildt firing, part 3. And, IIRC from last week, yeah, he was a Liberatore addict, too.)

That said, early prices for Noah Syndergaard and Eduardo Rodriguez may make Mo even more leery about cracking DeWitt's DeWallet.

See MLBTR's top 50 list FAs list and some of their guesses.