Buster Posey beating Yadier Molina to Cooperstown, if either belong

In a semi-stunner, Buster Posey is reportedly going to retire from the San Francisco Giants, leaving a $22M team option year that likely would have been picked up on the table, and a possible ticket to Cooperstown.

As MLB Trade Rumors notes, a year ago, Posey looked more beat. He also has had many injuries in his career, so it's not a total stunner to see him moving on, and leaving on a relatively high note.

And now, to the discussion in the headline of this post. Has Posey "punched his ticket"?

An offense-first, but not bad defensively catcher, Posey will be touted for the Hall of Fame, and will almost certainly be compared and contrasted to defense-first, pitch-framing and intangibles Yadier Molina, who will be back in 2022 with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Is Posey's 44.9 WAR enough to make Cooperstown? Possibly, but almost surely not on the first ballot.

Ted Simmons is the last catcher to go in, and he was a veterans committee choice with 50.3 career WAR.

Posey is 14th on catchers' JAWS ranking. He does have one 7-WAR season, a benchmark for backstops and an MVP for that season. In that, he compares to Thurman Munson, the best catcher currently not in the Hall, revenge-fucked by NYC writers for the BBWAA, and weirdly, continually, overlooked by the veterans committee in various incarnations. (Oh, anybody who claims it's not a big injustice that Munson's not in? Wrong.)

Molina, meanwhile sits at 42.1 and is unlikely to pass Posey next year. He might not do it in two years, even.

It's true that pitch-framing is an intangible. (Or, theoretically. Fangraphs rates this, and it's probably even more subjective than other defensive ratings, and I trust Fangraphs less on defense than B-Ref.  And, if FRM is framing there, then this guy is wrong about how close Buster and Yadi are; also, Fangraphs says that framing is not part of its version of dWAR anyway.) But, Yadi, like Posey and like Munson, does have a 7-WAR season on the books. (Simmons does not, and that may have hurt him.) Posey is also above the HOF average for catchers on WAR/162 games, reflecting his relatively short career. He ranks roughly the same as Munson, ahead of HOFers like Carlton Fisk and Yogi Berra, and roughly even with Gary Carter. His JAWS7 is roughly the same as the first two. On the WAR/162, he's well ahead of Yadi.

My prediction? He'll get in, by writers' vote, but will need at least five years.

Contra Giants homers on MLBTR? Carter needed six ballots. Mike Piazza needed four. (Given comments at MLBTR and elsewhere, I now have a new post addressing the first-ballot issue for Posey in particular vs catchers in general.)

Yadi? Seven years minimum if writers do put him in. I last tackled his case four years ago. It hasn't gotten any worse in my eyes, but it hasn't gotten significantly better, either.

Both could be helped by being one-team players, though, as well as having had plenty of postseason success.

MLB Trade Rumors has Yankees fans touting Jorge Posada. His odds? Think not. Even with Molina on WAR, though a bit ahead on JAWS7 and WAR/162. Never broke 6 WAR and not renowned defensively.

Joe Mauer? Too many games at 1B/DH with too little power.