You also are likely aware of Donald Trump's plans to send a quick nomination to the U.S. Senate — this and insider baseball in D.C. explains his short list from last week even though nobody would talk publicly that Ginsburg was about to die, for us plebs — and Mitch the Turtle's plans to try to shove it through.
Democrats, beyond the "Oh the SCOTUS" that can't sway independent leftists, are engaged in serious hand-wringing. But, how realistic are these worries.
Not that much, IMO. We're too close to an election. And, I'm not talking about the time frame of a nomination, FBI background check, Senate Judiciary Committee Hearings and floor hearings, with Harry Reid of filibuster-ending fame offering Senate Dems every tip and trick to stall things out that they can, before late October. Jeffrey Toobin talks more about the time frame, while saying it's theoretically possible to pull it off.
No, I'm talking election politics and calculus.
As for a Trump-McConnell attempt to reverse engineer the Merrick Garland and do a rushed replacement? Not likely, despite blather. Susan Collins will vote no for sure unless she's going to officially write off her Senate future. Ditto Arizona's McSally, who trails Mark Kelly. Alaska's Murkowski is independent enough to likely say no on more principled grounds, both on the rush job and possible concerns on an actual candidate. Cory Gardner in Colorado is in the same back-seat re-election boat as Collins and McSally. In Iowa, at least per the Des Moines Register, Ernst is behind. Even throwing out Murkowski, that's an even 50. Adding her, you're at 49. Ernst would be 48, unless she says damn any fallout. And, Thom Tillis in North Carolina is also in a tight race.
And, Murkowski and Collins have already gone on the record as "no." I presume Murkowski, at least, would hold true on a lame-duck Senate trying this if Biden beat Trump. Ernst's colleague Chuck Grassley, in addition, has said that "in the abstract" he'd have the same stance as in 2016. Toobin notes in his story that Lindsay Graham, Lamar Alexander and Mitt Romney (with Graham also up for re-election and in a surprisingly tight race) have, like Grassley, expressed "abstract" reservations. He also notes, as you can find elsewhere, that Arizona law would allow Kelly to take office Nov. 30 if he beats McSally, making a lame-duck nomination more difficult. Reportedly, similar is true in Georgia, if special-elected Kelly Loeffler loses her race for a full term. BUT, unless a bunch of Dems drop off, that's going to a runoff.
UPDATE on Senator weigh-ins. Huckleberry J. Butchmeup has already said yes. Lamar is radio-silent. GrassMan is yes. And now, the biggie. Despite fellow Mormon ex-Sen Flake encouraging GOPers not to do it, Mittens is yes.
Toobin also notes, especially if this whole thing gets really dirty and Dems reclaim the Senate as well as Biden winning, that it's very possible they'll eliminate the filibuster period. He also wonders if the Dems would expand the court.
The NYT also has a timeline story. It notes that McConnell may try to do this in a lame-duck session. Well, I think the "abstracters" listed above, if they have principles, would still object, or at least some of them. Murkowski would, I'm sure. Romney probably would. Grassley or Alexander might. And, if Kelly wins and is in, that blocks that there, too.
So, two basic thoughts:
- Not likely;
- IF it does happen, it does so in the lame-duck.
McConnell's Monday statement, by mentioning BOTH the number of days left before the election AND the number left in the session, indicates he's on two-track strategy.
Beyond that, follow the money. Act Blue is already shitstorming for money over this.
(Update: It's kind of funny to see Toobin call Dems "wimps.")
Do you really think Tillis et al will vote NO prior to the election? Just a weird analysis, amigo.
ReplyDeleteUs, righties, have been waiting literally for decades for a conservative court. From Warren through Souter and now it seems Roberts, we've been shivved time and again.
When the vote comes up and squishy RINOs vote no, there is literally no reason to vote for the Republican. None. Tillis? Hell man, we ALL know he sold his soul to the Chamber of Commerce.
The ONLY reason to vote for this guy is for the SC. Any Repub up for election who votes no will lose in the general because no conservative will vote for em.
Given that Dum Fuq Trump has infected enough senators to delay this whole thing, you need to rethink.
ReplyDelete