Some very interesting, and possibly scary, thoughts, per the latter part of the post today.
Bill Barr: Officially Trump's fixer, says Norm Eisen. NPR adds more, about how Billy Bob is enabling Trump's BS on voting by mail. Speaking of ...
Despite Trump AND Republicans consistently for years claiming that Democrats, especially minorities, are most likely to "cheat" on voting by mail, many Blacks still distrust it, even during the pandemic. The story notes that Black and Hispanic ballots by mail are rejected at a higher rate than White ballots. (No information on Asian or American Indian ones.) Since Trump's postmaster general is cutting OT pay, and thus further slowing the mail, I can't blame their stance. Speaking of ...
Ben Smith discusses how media in general and TV in particular could botch election coverage. Speaking of ...
Look at all the different ways a transition in a disputed presidential election could play out. Dems lost the EC twice this century and yet, other national Dems haven't pushed Elizabeth Warren's effort to abolish it. (Yet another reason I'm not a Democrat.) Dems continue to fear ANY new traction for Greens more than they do continued Electoral College problems?
Eisen was one of the participants in role-play gaming this, which had one of four possible scenarios:
Each scenario involved a different election outcome: An unclear result on Election Day that looked increasingly like a Biden win as more ballots were counted; a clear Biden win in the popular vote and the Electoral College; an Electoral College win for Trump with Biden winning the popular vote by 5 percentage points; and a narrow Electoral College and popular vote victory for Biden.
In the scenarios, the team playing the Trump campaign often questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, which often boosted Biden as they came in — shutting down post offices, pursuing litigation, and using right-wing media to amplify narratives about a stolen election.
My guesstimated order of likelihood, within the four?
No. 1, 35 percent;
No. 2, 40 percent;
No. 3, 10 percent;
No. 4, 15 percent.
Per Smith, yes, the US not having a national election commission (a real one, not the joke called the Federal Election Commission) is itself a problem.
And, in none of the four scenarios, do I expect Dems to be any more solicitous of getting rid of the Electoral College than they are now.
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