Coronavirus and check marks vs V's on recovery

Unemployment dropped again in June, it was announced last Friday. Good news, right? Well, it's good news that will probably go away again in next month's numbers.

A number of employers last week, including biggies like United Airlines, announced major job cuts ahead. Per the Washington Post, it reinforces that the post-COVID economic recovery will have a "check mark" recovery path, if that, not a V. The Trib agrees, expecting numbers to go up again in next month's report. The Dallas Observer reminds us that no State Fair will mean job losses at the end of summer. SEVEN THOUSAND.

It also is an incomplete picture, masking other realities.

Speaking of large-number sevens, there's another issue. An estimated seven MILLION Americans have suffered coronavirus wage cuts. Others who are still employed are underemployed, the story notes. (It doesn't note that some of them may have taken on second jobs, if they could find them, because of this.)

Two other takeaways?

This is hitting not starter jobs but more solidly middle class ones, which make it more worrisome for the larger economic picture.

Unlike job losses, which have disproportionately affected low-income workers, the pay cuts are mostly hitting workers in white-collar industries, according to the study of ADP data. Three-fourths of the cuts in pay fall within the top 40 percent of wage earners, researchers said.

Per stories in the piece, if you have a big financial anchor, like a mortgage, even if you can get it tweaked, that leaves you little room for discretionary spending.

Second? Many of the affected workers feel that they have no choice but to accept this.

The trend also suggests that employees feel they have no better options than to accept less money for the same work.

Americans believe they have a less than 50 percent chance of finding a new job within three months if they became unemployed today, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey — a drop of more than 16 percentage points from a year ago.

So, some tough news that will likely remain an issue for not just weeks but months ahead.

That's now confirmed by CEOs, reports the Wall Street Journal. With new surges, they're turning furloughs into firings and more. Details:

“We cannot defy gravity and continue with the business model we had before the pandemic,” Pret A Manger Chief Executive Pano Christou said on Friday as the sandwich chain reported an 87% drop in U.S. sales and announced plans to close nearly 20 stores.

Executives who were bracing for a monthslong disruption are now thinking in terms of years. Their job has changed from riding it out to reinventing. Roles once thought core are now an extravagance. Strategies set in the spring are obsolete. 

So, "congrats" to Donald Trump, Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis. Your rush to "reopen" America, Texas and Florida has officially shot itself in the foot.

But, per Capital and Main, "congrats" to neoliberal Dems like Gavin Newsom on this issue, too.

And, "congrats" to Trump medical enabler Deborah Birx.