Rick Carlisle, the Mavs, Porzingis, 3-balling and potential

ESPN's Seth Greenberg said recently he believes they can. I am inclined to doubt it after the Dwight Powell injury. Willie Cauley-Stein is a "nice" addition, and that's that, and I addressed that more at this piece about Powell's injury.

Beyond working around that — and for the team's longer-term future — they have to address other issues. Well, no, one big issue, AND how that issue is being coached.

Luka Dončić and Kristaps Porziņģis must learn to play together more and a certain head coach, Rick Carlisle, learn the best way to make that happen.

Part of this is the Unicorn still knocking bits of rust off plus adjusting to a new team. I know that without anybody at Red Satan telling me. But, he shot much better during Luka’s recent ankle-sprain absence.

Spacing is surely part of the issue.  But shot selection is too. Let's look at that in detail.

Contra Carlisle, a post-up is NOT a bad shot in today’s NBA. Shot charts tell us that the effective field goal percentage is best for inside 15 feet and outside the 3-ball line. Inside 15 feet is three things: dunks, layups and putbacks, and post-ups. So, the Zinger shooting an 18-19 foot midrange? No. The Zinger (with his slightly greater bulk this year) putting his butt on the blocks more? Yes. From there, with his height and court sense, learning to pass more, and better, out of double-teams should flow next. This is particularly true for times when Luka is not on the floor with him and he faces lots of doubles.

I mean, his eFG is below 50 percent. Not acceptable. Only player on the team below that mark. Zinger himself has said he's uncomfortable shooting that many 3s.

That said, this is part of what the Mavs got with him. He's never been above 50 percent on 2-point shooting. And, as cackling Knicks fans pointed out a week ago after getting the season sweep against the Mavs, right now, he's down to 40 percent. And somebody needs to fix that. I know that his high center of gravity and relatively slender build, even with some bulking, means he'll never be a Shaq, referring to one big man who, along with Round Mound Barkley and Chris Webber, has criticized him for not posting up more. And their criticisms come from a legit place; both led the league multiple time not only in 2-point FG percentage but also overall eFG. But, look at how well Tim Duncan played in the post without being that bulky.

And, Timmy had plenty of 3-ballers surrounding him. Manu, Danny Green, and Kawhi come immediately to mind. And Duncan normally shot 50 percent or better on 2's.

I think it's a reasonable goal for Carlisle to get the Zinger to be shooting twice as many shots from inside 15 feet by the end of next year as he is now, and to have a .525 2-point shooting percentage.

That said, drawing double-teams in post-ups would also require the Unicorn to become a better passer than he is now. Zach Lowe recently lamented his lack of skill there. Sounds like another Carlisle project for the next offseason. (Another way of phrasing this is that his assist percentage rate is half of Duncan's.)

And don't even get me started with Embiid, as Lowe's Red Satan cohorts Goldsberry and MacMullan try to do. And the idea that Embiid automatically drives every time his man tried to come too close to him? That's simple. A wing (or two) collapses and strips the ball from him. Embiid is NOT Nikola Jokić.

I have ZERO desire to see the Unicorn trying to imagine himself as a new Ralph Sampson, point forward. And, if Brett Brown had a brain in Philly, he would have the same worries about Embiid. Besides, you still can't get Ben Simmons, an actual, nominal guard, to shoot the 3-ball as much as you like, Brett.

Part of the Zinger's discomfort comes from an observation he made. Nobody expected, when they traded for Porziņģis that Luka would take off like this in his second season. It's Luka's team now.

But, at some point, Lowe and Carlisle need to challenge the Zinger to truly be the Unicorn, not an over-height 3-and-D guy.

Tim McMahon says the Mavs are atop the league in offensive efficiency. Doesn't mean they can't be better, does it? And, reality is that they're 10th in 3-ball percentage, among team stats. (They are fourth in 2-point percentage.)

Also, if you ARE going to be a coach asking a big man to shoot more 3-ball, why aren't you teaching them how to shoot more corner 3s, like the stereotypical "stretch 4"? Again, that's on Carlisle with the Zinger and Brett Brown with Embiid.

There's another advantage to pushing corner 3s out of your big men, rather than wing 3s or ones from up top, if you're the coach. Having the baseline on one side will constrain dribble penetration thoughts by big men on a corner 3 if they they think about pump-faking then driving. A one- or two-step drive might be acceptable. But after traffic will close in on you and pin you on the baseline.

In turn, that will force big men to either pop and shoot or pass back out, and to do either one quickly.

There you go, Carlisle. Your work is cut out for you.

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And, just as I say this, Red Satan has a new piece on how Pops has finally gotten LaMarcus Aldridge to shoot the 3-ball —and he's being successful!

On the third hand, per eFG, and even more, per FT percentage, LA has long been a decent shooter.