Mueller Report realities

I have long believed that there has been no collusion between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. (Indeed, per links below, no such federal crime called "collusion" even exists.)

So, as we await the Mueller report, here's a summary of thoughts related to it, most of which have been held by my for many moons.

First, Putin's too smart to trust a flighty weathervane like Trump. And, in any case, Michael Cohen testified that no Steele dossier type of blackmail-able information exists. Frosty Douthat has a good roundup.

Second, Russian government spinoffs doing low-dollar meddling to confuse voters (and by social media activities that were both pro-Trump AND anti-Trump) is NOT "collusion." It IS, though, election meddling of some sort. (I know we've done that, too, but this post isn't about twosiderism or whataboutism. It's about where we're at on the pending Mueller Report.)

Third, yes, Trump may be laundering Russian mafiyya $$$ and rubles through his real estate empire, but that doesn't mean that Putin's masterminding the money laundering, let alone doing it for reasons related to Point the First. Again, he's smart enough to stay generally detached on something like that. Beyond that, he's "got his" to the tune of $200 million or something, so he doesn't need (more?) Russian mob money.

Fourth, although Julian Assange is NOT a journalist (he's not, and neither is Edward Snowden; neither have actually worked as journalists in any old or new media outlets), he's not an agent of the Russian Federation, either. BUT, he has LONG left himself open to that charge by not only not cultivating leakers inside Russia, but also not collating known leaks. As reported by Daily Beast, though, another group, Distributed Denial of Service, IS doing that as part of its work. In turn, while Assange continues to camp out at the Ecuadorean Embassy in London and it's a situation I don't like, it's also not a situation I cry too big a river about. I digress ...

Fifth, I understand how the 25th Amendment works better than Andrew McCabe.

Sixth, a Democratic Party that has lost two Electoral College votes this century should focus on amending the Constitution, not litigating the past election. You too, sheepdogging Bernie.

Seventh, at the same time, contra ShirtLost DumbShit Haller and many others, I do believe that, per points second and fourth above, there WAS an actual Guccifer 2.0. (Not sure what the likes of Mark Ames and Yasha Levine think on this one and it doesn't matter to me.)

Being known, like others, by my online enemies of sort, like Marcy Wheeler and the rest of the Kossack Dead-End Kids, per this, and other vaguely Donut Twitter types, convinces me of whereof I stand. That said, sadly, Bernie Sanders believes much of this, too, it seems.

Eighth, per Aaron Mate, up through mid-March, Mueller had yet to indict anybody for conspiracy with Russia. (That would be the actual charge, since "collusion" doesn't exist.)

With that all said, I present a great in-depth analysis of where we're at on the Mueller Report. Yes, it's the Washington Examiner. But, per Media Bias Fact Check, while they slant stuff at times, the information / facts are usually solid.

Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti largely agrees at Time. And, he says "both sides" (ignoring that there are really more than two sides to the issue) could well be disappointed. That said, the Donut Twitter side has set itself up for its disappointment. As Mariotti notes, there is no such federal crime called "collusion." (That may still be news to Emptywheel, Bmaz and the other Kossack Dead-Enders.)

What we really have, as I see it, is a lot of Donut Twitter wishing criminal law worked like civil law — preponderance of evidence instead of beyond a reasonable doubt. But, that AIN'T the way it works, quite fortunately.

That split-sided, split-sex cardinal isn't that weird

This split sided cardinal is stuck in Pennyslvania, rather than playing a split-squad game in Florida for St. Louis.

For people who saw, and read about, the interesting cardinal in Pennsylvania? It's just one particular twist on chimerism of various sorts in the animal world, and even split-sex chimerism, whether "split" as with the cardinal or otherwise showing up morphically, while rare, is not THAT rare. Read more.

It should also be noted that this cardinal is so much not THAT rare within its own species that another one was written about five years ago.

Bilateral gynandromorph

This has other implications, as the story notes. In birds, it shows that evolutionary biology doesn't know all the details, such as sexual hormones, etc., of how bird sex develops. In mammals, of course, we know the two sex chromosomes are not the be-all and end-all of sexual identity. We know in reptiles that hatching temperature can influence sexual identity. So, what all happens in birds?

Related to that, speaking of "weirdness" in conception? Meet the "sesquizygotic" twins. They're halfway between fraternal and identical.

The Times piece, at the first link, notes that sexual dimorphism within a single mammal is much less likely than with birds or other orders. But? The sesquizygotic twins should hint to us that it's not impossible.

And, that in turn leads me to the background history of human reproductive developmental problems, and that if you believe in an omniscient monotheistic deity, you have to logically accept that God is the great abortionist.

And, please don't cite "original sin" as the reason for this.

An American analogy to Israel and Palestine

Let us say that the United States Government admitted the error of its ways on the Black Hills.

Let us ALSO say, though, that it knew the Sioux were no newer to the Black Hills than Lewis and Clark going up the Missouri.

So, it gave joint custody to the Sioux (Lakota, Dakota) and the Crow.

Let us say that the US Government kept a form of trusteeship for a few years of transition.

Let us then say that this was not acceptable to the Sioux. That Sioux leader Crazy Bull, considered a terrorist by the US Government, put a bomb in the Roosevelt Inn. The government expedited its pullout.

After the Sioux attacked the Crow, let us say that the Arapaho, Shoshone and Pawnee rallied to the side of the Crow. And that the, say, Arapaho eventually annexed the Crow land.

Twenty years later, the Arapaho, after first thinking better, joined the Shoshone, Pawnee and Winnebagos in a new war against the Sioux. And lost the Crow lands to the Sioux.

Fifty years later, the Crow were fighting for their independence from the Sioux.

Let us then say that some Sioux accused all non-Sioux and non-Crow of Crow-splaining.

That's where we're at.

For those who don't get it, substitute Great Britain and League of Nations Palestine mandate for the US and work forward.

TX Progressives talk Cornyn, Whitley, climate change

The Texas Progressives, all here legally and commenting on voting in Texas legally, offer this week's roundup.

First, either John Cornyn personally or one of his staffers stepped in a big tub o shit. I'm guessing it was Big John himself, who's been walking around with his own personal Overton Window for years and years now, all while the Austin stenos equivalent of Beltway stenos in DC largely give him a pass.

Knowing that calling Hitler a socialist or democratic socialist doesn't fly, he went Mussolini instead:

“We were the first to assert that the more complicated the forms assumed by civilization, the more restricted the freedom of the individual must become.” Benito Mussolini

— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) February 24, 2019

Non-duopoly (I think) journalist Tim Shorrock, who went to high school overseas with Big John, called him out:

Since Sen. Cornyn has decided to insult socialists with the lie that their thinking is "incompatible with freedom," let me remind him that he was a big supporter of George Wallace when he was in high school in Tokyo in 1968. I know because I was there. https://t.co/Oaugs2A3TY https://t.co/msHYCbb10P

— Tim Shorrock (@TimothyS) February 25, 2019

I'd never seen that Texas Observer piece before, but Shorrock nails Cornyn's hide to the wall like a coonskin. Remember, that piece is from way back in 2002. And, sorry, Tim, as you well know, Cornyn, more suavely than Havana Ted, continues to play this time of card game.

The Texas Observer looks beyond the Permian Basin to see how, with even less excuse, the natural gas flaring in the Eagle Ford is ridiculous.

That flaring — and the oil drilling that causes that flaring — contributes to global warming and other aspects of climate change. A new computer simulation says that, on a worst-case scenario, if we hit 1,200 ppm of carbon dioxide and equivalents in a century, not only will we have 7 degrees Fahrenheit (4C) of warming, we will so destroy cloud cover that that could add AN EXTRA 15 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT! Yes, alarmism! And needed! That's a total of 12C, or TWENTY DEGREES FAHRENHEIT,  of warming!

Houston Public Media reports all 12 Dems in the Texas Senate oppose David Whitely as Secretary of State. So, does he get Abbott off the hook and withdraw his name, or not?

Jim Schutze confirms what I suspected from early on — that the Dallas Morning Snooze's pitching of Big D as a spot for Amazon's second headquarters was predicated in part on flipping the Belo Building to Amazon. (The Snooze will still sell you a $25 "Beer" T-shirt, though!)

Socratic Gadfly mocked the owner of the New England Patriots with some Kraft Porkaroni and Cheese.

David Bruce Collins offered partial thoughts on the presidential candidacy of Tulsi Gabbard, while noting he's aware of "issues."

Brains has his latest prez candidate roundup, focused on Bernie Sanders entering the race. His admonition that ANY Dem will be called a socialist, as well as the face that Bernie IS a Dem, were both ignored by Ted, who has his post-Hillary knickers in an even tighter knot this year.

Off the Kuff quibbled with some of the conventional wisdom in the HD125 special election and runoff.

The Rag Blog reviews the new Eugene Debs graphic novel bio.

Bobby Hankinson refuses to be shamed out of supporting victims.

Beyond Bones highlights a few iconic symbols of Texas that actually have their origins outside the Lone Star State.

Mimi Swartz asks if the problem with standardized test results is the tests themselves.

The Bloggess urges you to have the talk (not that one, the other one) with your kids.

Add this to the list of items of Amazon as bad actor at its fulfillment centers in Dallas and elsewhere: It reportedly sells bootleg media.

Finally, the TPA highly recommends this profile of Monica Roberts and her mission to identify transgender murder victims. Monica had some issues with her TransGriot blog disappearing shortly after that piece was published, but that's been resolved (for now, at least) and it wouldn't have stopped her anyway.

A win and a loss in court for Texas good government

The win? A federal judge has blocked any vote purge based on the highly inaccurate list of alleged non-voters released by play-acting Secretary of State nominee David Whitley.

Judge Fred Biery's action also puts other restraints on county election officials.

And, it's yet another case of fiscal-minded Texas Rethuglican conservatives wasting our money in court.

The loss? The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals has declared part of the Open Meetings Act unconstitutional.

The portion of the law at hand?

"A member or group of members of a governmental body commits an offense if the member or group of members knowingly conspires to circumvent this chapter by meeting in numbers less than a quorum for the purpose of secret deliberations in violation of this chapter." 

The specific case involved Montgomery County Judge Craig Doyal, who was indicted for violating TOMA along with two county commissioners, when they allegedly negotiated details of a county road bond outside of a public meeting.

The CCA said it was too vague to stand constitutional muster.

First, does this stuff happen, besides what Doyal et al allegedly did? Hellz yes.

At contentious local government meetings, I have "wandered" into a men's bathroom if multiple members of a city council or school board did so at the same time during a break in a meeting. Or afterward before leaving city hall or the school district headquarters. You never know.

It's easier to do this, but easier to leave a trail if you're suspected of doing it, by cellphone today.

And shock me that Sharon Keller wrote the majority opinion.

State Sen. Kirk Watson is right that the Legislature needs to remedy this. But, our Lege "needs to" remedy all sorts of shit that it doesn't actually remedy.

And, while Doyel's own counsel is pooh-poohing worry, saying the scope of the ruling is limited, I disagree, in part for reasons noted. I really don't see how you de-vaguify the ruling without writing up 20 or more paragraphs of chapter and verse "for instances," which in turn will then be used by violators of the spirit of the TOMA to get themselves off the hook.

I don't know if it wouldn't be better, if CCA denies a rehearing and the Texas Supreme Court refuses to review the CCA's ruling on state constitutional grounds, which is itself a longshot, for the Lege to keep the vagueness and make the penalties civil instead of criminal and hope that passes muster.

What have third parties been good for?

A number of Berners are already attacking those who have criticized Bernie Sanders for being #NotLeftEnough.

Well, as Bernie is as left s you'll get in a national Democrat, that means criticizing people for thinking outside the current two-party duopoly box.

And, in turn, that means responding with some insight as to just what third parties have been good for.

And, for starters, third parties were key to America ending slavery when it did, rather than decades later.

In 1844, James Birney's Liberty Party is believed to have swung the election to Polk; his number of votes there were well more than the Polk-Clay margin, with Clay being seen as a "squish" on the annexation of Texas.

Eight years later, in 1852, an offshoot of it, the Free Soil Party, may have swung Ohio, Connecticut and Delaware, giving Frank Pierce a bigger electoral college margin victory over Winfield Scott than otherwise.

That, in turn, may have helped hasten the demise of the Whigs, which led to the rise of the Republicans — who themselves, as that indicates, began as a third party.

==

Skip to the Gilded Age.

The Greenback Party, which nominated Peter Cooper in 1876, was the first party to oppose problems associated with America's growing Industrial Age — hard money, debt, anti-rural moves and more. In 1880, its candidate James Weaver got more than 3 percent of the vote in a tight election year. Spoons Ben Butler carried its banner in 1884, an even tighter race.

It eventually became the Greenback Labor Party because, again, both R's and D's were ignoring labor in the Gilded Age. It then led to the People's or Populist Party, which lasted until William Jennings Bryan ran on a dual platform in 1896. That said, many of their issues, other than soft money, were eventually taken up by progressive movements in both halves of the duopoly — perhaps in part because they believed it right, but also because they feared the political consequences of not doing so. Also, though the Populists didn't draw labor support, Eugene Debs' Socialists did.

==

Skip to the Depression.

While Upton Sinclair did run for governor of California as a Dem when pushing his EPIC program, he was a Socialist of long standing. FDR undermined his campaign through secret collaboration with the California GOP.

Nonetheless, Sinclair — and his campaign platform — were so popular that FDR was forced to give America Social Security and other things in the "Second New Deal" of the second half of his first term. No, FDR didn't do those things willingly. Sinclair plus the popularity of the Kingfish, Huey Long, forced his hand. In addition to Social Security, we got the National Labor Relations Board, the WPA, banking reform, and other things from it.

That's because FDR was #NotLeftEnough.

==

And, it's timely for refudiating some of the Berners because on Saturday, Bernie uttered his first Twitter words on Venezuela since Trump started pushing for the coup there:

The people of Venezuela are enduring a serious humanitarian crisis. The Maduro government must put the needs of its people first, allow humanitarian aid into the country, and refrain from violence against protesters.

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) February 23, 2019

Will wait for the most ardent Berners to try to squirm out of this one.

And, with that in mind, here's my initial take on Green 2020 presidential candidates.

Fakery begets fakery, SJW world, and a Daoist response

First, although you can't call Nikki Joly a Jussie Smollett copycat because this action came first, the transgender gay rights activist has been arrested for burning his own (rental) house down. More here.

Second, a (scientific) paper claiming that an atmosphere of hate around them could take as much as 12 years off gay peoples' lives has been retracted. The problem there was that it was originally just corrected; it should have been retracted when the error was first found. This was compounded by the professor finding the error being publicly anti-gay marriage, which may have caused the paper's authors to dig in their heels.

In the first case, we have enough real hate crimes for there to be no need for fakery. This just fuels opponents of equal rights, and, in the case of people like me, leads to further criticism of the SJW subdivision of various groupings of people while continuing to support larger rights. And, my initial guess is that Joly missed the fame from fighting for LGBTQ civic rights after Jackson approved its non-discrimination ordinance.

And, beyond Joly, it's not like we haven't had fake accusations before. Like Matttress Woman. University of Virginia. And others. I still think there was righteous wrongdoing by some of the Covington Catholic kids, but past falsehoods both recent and old on the SJW trail puts everything under a microscope.

The second case makes one question the academic credentials of the original researchers. A 2-3 year lifespan claim might have been plausible. 12 years? Now, all research this area will face both warranted and unwarranted new skepticism.

Back to Joly one more time.

This also shows the addictiveness of fame. And, the world of social media has only increased the addictiveness potential as well as the ways to feed it. That's even more true if you're like Nikki Joly and had a tragic childhood, followed by being beat down much of your adulthood.

Resist the temptation is all I can say. Part of the problem with the addiction to fame is that it drives individualism into overdrive. If you care about a movement first, you'll resist the temptation. All good lessons from Daoism. Or Stoicism. But more from Daoism. It teaches acceptance without detachment, unlike Stoicism or Buddhism. Accept the world as it is and find your own stream in it. Make changes within your direction within the stream while accepting not all will be easy. Daoism also, because it does not believe the Way is logical or rational, unlike Stoicism, also notes that life is not fair. And, it's not. Sadly.

Daoism, to me, also talks about authenticity, without necessarily following the Cynic path of trying to prove one's authenticity by rebelling against convention as well as against authority. Stoicism of course teaches no such thing; neither does any variety of Buddhism which says that belief in the existence of an individual self is itself wrong and wrong-headed, even evil.

Dallas Keuchel to the Cardinals? Does Mo have new urgency with Martinez out?

The St. Louis Cardinals don't need to overpay for one of the top two position player free agents, one of whom is massively overrated anyway.

That said, they COULD still stand to upgrade the rotation.

And, a month ago, I suggested doing just that.

The idea?

A medium-sized dip into free agency with Dallas Keuchel.

I'm thinking 3/$50M base, maybe 3/$55, with innings and awards incentives for each year and a fourth-year option at $15M plus same incentives structure.

I am not sure if that's enough to land him, but it's certainly enough to be a good starting point. And, at the same time, it certainly doesn't feel like an overpay.

That said, he IS a Scott Bore-ass client. And MLB Trade Rumors reported on Feb. 10 that Keuchel was wanting 6-7 years at $250-30M per annum.

Per George H.W. Bush? Not. Gonna. Happen. (MLBTR, in November, predicted 4/$82 for Keuchel. My number, if he hit a reasonable amount of incentives, would be somewhere between $55-$60M for the three guaranteed years plus $17-18M or so for the option, so I'm not far off.)

But why, you may say, would I be interested in Keuchel at a more reasonable price, like what I mention above?

Simple.

Per the header, you can never have enough pitching.

And, this was true even before the club shelved Carlos Martinez for two weeks at the start of spring training due to shoulder issues — and player-management issues about his offseason prep and more lying behind that.

And, as of the time I posted this, that two weeks has been extended and he may not be ready for Opening Day. Wundebar. Meanwhile, way too many Cards fans are team Kool-Aid drinkers, per comments at that MLBTR link.

First, contra the Mike Shildt bullshit, Adam Wainwright not only is not a sort-of No. 1 starter, he's really not a starter period. Michael Wacha is not a No. 1 starter; he's a recurring injury waiting for a new outbreak. Alex Reyes should not be pencilled in for anything until he hurdles his two serious injuries for more than 25-30 innings.

Beyond that, as a commenter said at MLBTR, none of the other young guns have pitched enough at the MLB level for us to even talk about a "track record." They ain't got one, so stop making extrapolations.

A rotation that starts off with Miles Mikolas, Martinez and Keuchel has a solid foundation. Mikolas should eat a lot of innings, too, and Keuchel can.

Jack Flaherty is your No. 5, with Wacha at No. 4. John Gant and Daniel Poncedeleon fight for spot starts along with Waino. Right now, I might still take Wainwright ahead of them. Or I might not. With Luke Weaver gone in the Goldy trade, things are thin after that indeed, not allowing for the possibility of Carlos being shelved, and Reyes still an unknown.

And, at The Athletic, Bernie Miklasz agrees. (While, like me, a week ago at ESPN Radio, being skeptical that DeWitt would open DeWallet. Thanks, Bernie.)

Waino goes in the pen for long relief, spot starts to stretch out the four young'uns early in the season and to mop up. Maybe use Andrew Miller as an occasional "opener" on a lefty-heavy team and have Waino follow. Reyes also spot starts after rounding into shape in Memphis. Reassess the 4-5 spots by or before the All-Star break.

A rotation like that also stabilizes the pen a lot.

And, though he's called an "innings-eater," maybe Keuchel could be No. 2?

Let's look at it this way.

Every spring training, we hear about the promise and potential of Martinez. And, every season, he falls short. And, I'm not just talking about injuries.

He's never dropped a WHIP below 1.2, and pitching coach Mike Maddux, per Ben Hochman's piece on Carlos-Mo scuffles linked above, supposably loves that stat. Carlos has only dropped below 3.50 on FIP once. He's only broken 3 on K/BB once. And that wasn't the same year as the FIP best year.

In other words, Birds fans?

Carlos Martinez will never be a No. 1 starter. Not even a 1A. He's a 2, period. And Keuchel, on all the advanced stats above, is at least even with him. In fact, undercutting Ben (Dover) Hochman, he's been better than Martinez on WHIP the past two years.

Besides, as Derrick Goold notes in his latest baseball roundup on Feb. 6, Wacha is almost certainly gone after this year, and as he also notes, you can never have enough pitching. In addition, Goold expects Waino to do a midyear retirement if he can't cut the mustard at all.

But, we need another starter, IMO. Waino isn't one and what I said on Wacha. The Reds adding Sonny Gray further underscores the value of good pitching arms. I got into a fairly friendly, but somewhat heated, Twitter discussion on this last month with a group of Cards fans, in the hipster / bro / lumberjack division of male Millennials, perhaps, who can think of nothing beyond the imperative of signing Bryce Harper. See more on that here.

I know that DeWitt / Mozeliak are making noises that, other than adding relief help of presumably moderate cost, they're done. Rick Hummel pretty much confirms that, while noting that Mo "expects" Reyes to make a serious contribution this year.

Well, they shouldn't be.

And, fortunately, since leaving the P-D, Bernie Miklasz doesn't fellate Mo the way Goold, Hochman and Hummel do.

Others have mentioned the possibility of Gio Gonzales. He is a lefty, so he's got that. But that's about it. He's a step, or more, behind Keuchel, and also, two years older. I'd offer a 1-year deal at $5 million and move forward from there. But, no big money and no deals above 1 year. And, even $5 million is more like "final offer" than original offer.

So, bottom line, per the second, clearly rhetorical, question in the header?

Mo should have urgency, and does not.

Dear Trump: If you don't like NATO, then just leave

If you and sockpuppet Mike Pence really don't like that NATO countries don't spend as much on their defense budgets than USA USA USA, you have the alternative of pulling out.

Yes, you'll get flamed even more than you already have by the bipartisan foreign policy establishment. But, I thought you had such thick skin.

Reality is, you don't, and you'd rather deal with the nicht and non from Merkel and Macron across the pond instead of the fallout at home.

Actually, you do have a second option. Figure out why Berlin and Paris spend less, and apply whatever you can to cutting the US defense budget.

Neither A nor B will happen. Trump's a big biz grifter who has no problem helping fellow big biz grifters, plus he has a Freudian male adolescent's lust for weaponry toys. So, that kills B. A, I already mentioned. For someone who allegedly hates the Blob, he hasn't drained that part of the swamp more than any other. (not that I really expected him to)