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December 09, 2019

Cardinals pitching upgrade, let's try this again

So, would another starting pitcher on the mound help the St. Louis Cardinals next year?

I say yes.

They don't need to replace Ozuna in the OF. That's more room for Tyler O'Neill, as well as the challenge to step up. Tommy Edman has already shown he can play there as well as the infield.

Assuming the Cardinals let Michael Wacha walk, they'll have room for a starter. And, with his money (let's assume something like the $6M this year) plus Ozuna's (let's say somebody pays him $16M a year), that's $22M a year.

Not even close to the two priciest pitchers.

But that's not needed.

Jack Flaherty could already be the No. 1 man. But, let's not count long-term chickens. We'll keep Miles Mikolas penciled at No. 2, if that. Maybe No. 3 if he regresses. So, some other pitcher in the Hamels-like tier would be fine. Carlos Martinez may or may not be a starter, and his latest shoulder issues? Don't hold your breath.

So,

Is $22M a year, dependent on contract length, enough to land Madison BumgarnerDallas KeuchelHyun-Jin Ryu. Possibly, on the first two, probably to certainly on the third. Any of those work at No. 2. MLB.com reports the Birds are interested in Bum. OTOH, it also notes he has high home-road splits the last three years, and some are of real concern.

(OK, I was wrong on Bum. The D-backs, and others, apparently took note of his massive home/road splits.)

Ryu, I'm kind of leery of, due to injury history. Bumgarner (other than in the off-season!), Keuchel and Hamels all have fairly long to long track records of durability. That said, Bum got the QO, so the Cards would have to give the draft pick back.

There's another consideration. Bumgarner isn't represented by a certain Scott Boras. The other two are.

There's another possibility, riffing on David Schoenfield's blockbuster trade idea. To help the Red Sox get under the lux tax line, rather than trading for Mookie Betts plus not-needed-he's-a-righty Nathan Eovaldi, and giving up too much back? Send Matt Carpenter for David Price plus letting the Sox dump enough other salary to be it worth their while but not kill the Cards.

Cards get their lefty starter. Price may have a second gust of energy coming over to the NL.

It would have to be more than a 1-for-1 straight up, in all likelihood. With Carp's extension, the Sox would save "only" $13.5 million per year. Per Cot's Contracts, that move alone gets them close, but not under. But, if they combine that with some judicious cutting elsewhere? They get below the tax line one year, reset, and then maybe resign Betts.

And you know? Jackie Bradley Jr. isn't that expensive for the Cards, but he would be enough to get you just below. And, MLB Trade Rumors says he could be an outfield boost. And that the Cards are looking for lefty bats, which he is one of. (They'd lose one with Carp, of course.) Other minor tweaking as necessary, preferably involving no MLB players except maybe whoever the Cards would dump off the 40-man to make the space.

But, besides him being a righty the Cards just don't need, they just don't need the overpaid Eovaldi.

That's why Redbird Rants is laughable.

First, Mo is not trading for Betts as a rent-a-player. He's traded for players on the last year of a contract before, but with the expectation he could resign them. I don't think Mo has plans to shell out 8/$260 or more for Betts.

Second, Mo is not trading away Edman. Period.

Third, he is not trading for Eovaldi, period.

And, the Sox could use Carp, at his old stomping ground of 2B, where they have a black hole right now.

That said, but, but, but ... Carp has a no-trade clause, right? The way I read it, though, it doesn't kick in until the start of 2020. And we're in the 2019 offseason. As others have noted, though, even if it is in effect now, he might waive it if his 2022 vesting is guaranteed. Right now, that's based on 550 ABs for 2020 and 2021, and he might not hit that with St. Louis.

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