Mac Thornberry joins the Texodus, hoist by his own petard

Mac Thornberry, despite being from the reddest of red districts, is the latest GOP Congresscritter to join the #Texodus. I suspect two factors are at play. One is that many Republicans expect, despite their whistling in the dark, that Dems will keep control of the House. The other is that GOP term limits for both committee chairs AND ranking minority members mean that a GOP Congresscritter has a short and steep bell curve on real power. That's as the House GOP said last week it was reconsidering the limits. Thornberry is mentioned by name as ranking member of the major Armed Services Committee who would have been term-limited after his current term.

I'm sure this is driving others out, too, and is leading others to think about it. The Politico piece mentions bald headed goon Kevin Brady. (No, not THAT bald headed goon, Gohmert Pyle.)

Thornberry is the sixth Texas GOPer to leave. He was part of Newt Gingrich's wave in 1994. That wave included and was built on Newt's Contract with on America, which included the term limits issue. So, this is a kind of "hoist by one's own petard" issue.

With Rep. Mac Thornberry’s retirement announcement, that’s it for the continuously serving House Republicans from the Class of 1994. #TX13

— Kyle Trygstad (@KyleTrygstad) September 30, 2019

That is funny.

Given that Armed Services was his only current committee assignment, he would have been low man on a totem pole in 2021. His situation is somewhat similar to Mike Conaway just to his south. Conaway was going to be term-limited out of Ag, a powerful committee in rural parts of Texas. That said, Conaway was on other committees, including ... Armed Services.

Three of the other four Texodusters were likely to lose. Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant and Pete Olson all faced tough battles. As for other longer-serving Rethugs, Louie Gohmert will never be given a committee chairmanship because even the House GOP ain't that stupid (I think) and therefore has a free pass for life.

Meanwhile, the Trib needs Patrick Svitek, at the second link, to talk to some of his staff:

I have no idea what is going thru Thornberry’s head. But this is an incredibly safe R district (I have family members who live there.) It would strike me that to portray this particular retirement as evidence of some sort of Texas GOP panic is wrong-headed or disingenuous. 4/ end

— Abby Livingston (@TexasTribAbby) September 30, 2019

Weirdly, in an earlier tweet, she said she was expecting he'd retire. Well, that IS what was in his mind. What else would it be? Peter Principle at the Trib, hard at work?

As for Mac's future? Let's see ... 25-plus years in DC, ranking member on Armed Services? Defense contractor lobbying position should be opening in about 18 months!

In the longer term, a district like Mac's, where the small cities of West Texas are almost as winger as the surrounding farm-and-ranch, or farm-ranch-oil, counties will remain fairly safe. BUT ... the number of Congresscritters is more than the number of state senators; at some point, more of Texas' rural Congresscritters are going to face some of the same redistricting issues as rural state Legiscritters like Drew Springer, discussed here.

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Speaking of, the race has its first potential candidates. Cooke County Judge Jason Brinkley has formed an exploratory committee. Amarillo City Councilwoman Elaine Hays has done likewise. Springer is going to stay running for HD 68, as I expected.

Still no word on whether or not Pat Fallon, who has now said he will NOT primary Cornyn for the Senate, might jump in. (I've asked.)