My first take on the 2015 baseball #HOF ballot

The full ballot is here.

I think that Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez get in as first-timers. I also think Craig Biggio scrambles over the top.

I think that Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza go into a holding pattern.  I think Mike Mussina makes a strong surge forward, to around 35 percent. Tim Raines breaks 50 percent.

I do NOT see John Smoltz getting in, in his first year, and I don't get people who make that prediction. Smoltz is Curt Schilling, on both counting stats and sabermetrics, other than a couple of 40-save seasons as a closer, and without the benefit of the bloody sock or earlier 2001 WS heroics. I'd be surprised if Smoltz breaks 40 percent. I'd be hugely surprised if he breaks 50 percent.

I see Don Mattingly, Sammy Sosa, Larry Walker and Mark McGwire all losing ballot eligibility. No big loss, not even on the last two, and I say this as a Cards fan.

Schilling's an interesting one himself.

Does he make a surge of sympathy with his cancer recovery, and admitting its cause, and some other turmoil in his life, is his fault? Or does he get a smackdown for his ...

Un-evolved stupidity? Stand by.

Leading the more "enhanced" first-year eligibles, Gary Sheffield gets about 15 percent.

Go here for my take on getting 10 legit, non-roiding players in this year.