Canadian contempt for Harper is likely to fizzle

Doorknob, I love parliamentary governments.

Including the one to the north of the U.S., in Ottawa.

The Canadian Parliament, in a historic move, has made a parliamentary finding of contempt against Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The vote also is, in essence, a no-confidence vote, triggering parliamentary elections.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper faces Parliament.

However, Canada's economy is growing faster than the U.S.'s (whose isn't, these days?) and Harper will surely run on that.

The opposition used the maneuver to avoid voting against Harper's budget, another sign that it doesn't want to campaign on the economy, but rather Harper's personal style as prime minister.

And, how strong is that economy? Per Bloomberg's story on the vote, the Canadian dollar is trading at parity with the U.S. greenback.

Canada is in its seventh year of minority government, namely because the opposition parties can't get their collective acts together.

And, early on, I'll give 50-50 odds that Harper survives again, whether with a minority or not. All he has to do is gain seats, even if not a majority, and watch the tripartate opposition of Liberals, Bloc Quebecois, and New Democratic Party flail away at each other.

This is the same opposition that had opportunities to hold formal no-confidence votes more than a year ago and always shied away from that, after all.

And, the gun-shy attitude was lead by current Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, who didn't sound incredibly inspiring in discussing opposition issues after the vote. The NDP's Layton is ill and I don't know how well other top NDP folks can carry that party's banner should he be forced to stand down for most of the campaign.

As for Harper? For American readers, I liken him to a cross between Reagan and Bush II. He has W's sometimes "challenged," often blunt straight-talking political attitude, but a bit of Reaganesque Teflon. Like both, he's lucky in his opponents, so far at least.