The last three general elections have all been "wave" elections," with strong changes in Congressional representation. It's unusual to have that type of change election after election.
So, will 2012 be a "normal" election? Prominent analyst Charlie Cook thinks so. My first oddsmaking is 50-50 Obama vs. generic GOP opponent, 50-50 on Dems keeping control of the Senate, including by tie, and 3-1 on GOP keeping the House. At the same time, I'll put 50-50 on 15-20 Democratic seat pick-ups there.
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