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December 31, 2010

Larry Walker: Another non-HOFer getting fluffed

Once again, it's an ESPN columnist fluffing somebody who is a definite for the Hall of the Very Good, but NOT the Hall of Fame.

Jim Caple does the "honors" with Larry Walker.

I gave brief sketches here of why most the people eligible for the Hall on this year's ballot shouldn't get in. Let's look at what I said there about Walker:
Should not get in, any year, though I loved the guy as a Cards fan. Great fielder, but, outside of pre-humidor Colorado, he's a much more iffy batter, for his road splits as a Rocky, before that as an Expo, and after that. Had he not had injury problems, maybe he could have "sold us," but, he did and so he couldn't. (Todd Helton will face similar issues, and with the number of 1B in the league, probably won't qualify either.)

I think that's it in a nutshell.

Caple admits to Walker's injury history, but tries to downplay the nature of Walker's home-road splits. So, let's look at some key Walker stats:
                                                                        
Year Age Tm R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1989 22 MON 4 8 0 0 0 4 1 .170 .264 .170 .434 26
1990 23 MON 59 101 18 3 19 51 21 .241 .326 .434 .761 112
1991 24 MON 59 141 30 2 16 64 14 .290 .349 .458 .807 127
1992 25 MON 85 159 31 4 23 93 18 .301 .353 .506 .859 142
1993 26 MON 85 130 24 5 22 86 29 .265 .371 .469 .841 120
1994 27 MON 76 127 44 2 19 86 15 .322 .394 .587 .981 151
1995 28 COL 96 151 31 5 36 101 16 .306 .381 .607 .988 130
1996 29 COL 58 75 18 4 18 58 18 .276 .342 .570 .912 116
1997 30 COL 143 208 46 4 49 130 33 .366 .452 .720 1.172 178
1998 31 COL 113 165 46 3 23 67 14 .363 .445 .630 1.075 158
1999 32 COL 108 166 26 4 37 115 11 .379 .458 .710 1.168 163
2000 33 COL 64 97 21 7 9 51 5 .309 .409 .506 .915 110
2001 34 COL 107 174 35 3 38 123 14 .350 .449 .662 1.111 160
2002 35 COL 95 161 40 4 26 104 6 .338 .421 .602 1.023 150
2003 36 COL 86 129 25 7 16 79 7 .284 .422 .476 .898 121
2004 37 TOT 51 77 16 4 17 47 6 .298 .424 .589 1.013 153
2004 37 COL 22 35 9 3 6 20 2 .324 .464 .630 1.093 166
2004 37 STL 29 42 7 1 11 27 4 .280 .393 .560 .953 143
2005 38 STL 66 91 20 1 15 52 2 .289 .384 .502 .886 130
17 Seasons 1355 2160 471 62 383 1311 230 .313 .400 .565 .965 140
162 Game Avg. 110 176 38 5 31 107 19 .313 .400 .565 .965 140
R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
COL (10 yrs) 892 1361 297 44 258 848 126 .334 .426 .618 1.044 147
MON (6 yrs) 368 666 147 16 99 384 98 .281 .357 .483 .839 128
STL (2 yrs) 95 133 27 2 26 79 6 .286 .387 .520 .908 134


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/31/2010.

And, let's do my own thumbnail neutralization.

First, every player is going to have a bit of home-road split, just from the relaxation of not traveling, the support of home fans, etc. And, yes, some older parks may have had fairly serious boosts (or, in the case of DiMaggio in the original configuration of old Yankee Stadium, some detriment). But, Walker's is much greater than normal.

My guess?

His BA falls to about .308, his hit total to 2,050, his doubles to 450, his HRs to 350, his runs to 1,250 and his RBIs to 1,200. I think that's a reasonable normalization of his career numbers.

And, you don't just need my rule-of-thumb guesses. At Baseball-Reference, if you click the "more stats" link near the top of Walker's profile, you'll get much more of a profile, including neutralized states. They peg him at a .299 BA, 365 HRs, 1,201 runs and 1,175 RBIs.

Can you really say that's a Hall of Fame career? I won't. And, as for a string of dominance, with park normalization he might have lost the first of his batting titles, to John Olerud. And, lost his one home run title in 1997 to Jeff Bagwell, who was still playing in the Astrodome.

So, Mr. Jim Caple, and far from the first time for you or most ESPNers on the Hall of Fame, you're wrong.

As a Cards fan, I loved Walker's brief stay there. Hated that a variety of nagging, chronic injuries ended that, and his career, too soon.

But, they were nagging, chronic injuries. Not a sudden thing, like Sandy Koufax's arthritis or Kirby Puckett's vision. That said, Puckett wasn't an obvious HOF choice to me then, and still isn't now.

2 comments:

  1. Excellent points in your blog. Walker was a very good player, but a borderline hall of famer. One could argue that his stats and awards are similar to a guy like Dave Parker, who probably will never get in.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yeah ... an even closer comparison to the Cobra Parker is ... Dale Murphy. I like pointing that out to all the Murph boosters.

    ReplyDelete

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