How will make this year's baseball HOF? Who SHOULD?

Here's the official 2011 HOF ballot.

And here's my take on who should get in this year, who should get in eventually, and who WILL get in, either this year or eventually, among top candidates.

Bert Blyleven - Should get in this year, should have been in long ago. I think he will get in. But, less than 80 percent vote.

Robbie Alomar - Probably will get in this year; if he does, it will be in the 75-80 percent range, like Blyleven. Should he be? Despite all the Gold Gloves, he has a negative career defensive Win Above Replacement. And, only once, in an individual season, was his dWAR +1.0 or better. He is still a good enough offensive 2B to qualify.

Barry Larkin - Deserves in eventually, but not this year. Anybody with ZERO points under Baseball-Reference's black ink line should NOT be a first-year entrant. Should get in eventually, but probably not this year.

Larry Walker - Should not get in, any year, though I loved the guy as a Cards fan. Great fielder, but, outside of pre-humidor Colorado, he's a much more iffy batter, for his road splits as a Rocky, before that as an Expo, and after that. Had he not had injury problems, maybe he could have "sold us," but, he did and so he couldn't. (Todd Helton will face similar issues, and with the number of 1B in the league, probably won't qualify either.)

Jeff Bagwell - May get in this year but probably not. If he doesn't do it in another year or two, could get lost in the shuffle. I think he deserves in, but, the relatively early career dropoff at a relatively undemanding position, 1B, may be a negative. Bagwell and Walker are the only first-year eligibles who (currently) deserve serious consideration for the future.

Jack Morris - No, no, never! The luckiest pitcher of the last 30-40 years. Were it not for Game 7 of the 1991 WS, we wouldn't even be discussing him. And, I don't think he will, not just this year but any year.

Lee Smith - No, all counts. I agree that saves by themselves are overrated. In the era of the one-inning or less closer, you've got to have more. Plus, his career WHIP is above 1.25, a big red light in my book. (Yes, many sabermetricians say pitchers can only control walks, not hits; that's only partially true on hits.)

Edgar Martinez - No on "should" get in. Relatively fragile for playing primarily DH and couldn't even get 2,500 hits, despite a .312 BA. And, he probably won't. Being a DH without flashier career numbers may be held against him.

Tim Raines - Up there w/Bagwell of the best shot besides Blyleven and Alomar this year. Should he? I'm not anti-Raines, but I'm not as sold on him as some are.
Alan Trammell - Won't get in, and I don't think he should. Nice, but just not quite there.

Fred McGriff - Just can't quite pull the trigger on him. And, I think that will be his "will he" fate, too.

Rafael Palmeiro - No, not until he fesses up, on the "should." And probably ditto on the "will he." Hence my "currently" on Bagwell. That said, Rafe is like Barry Bonds; without juicing, he probably would have been a HOFer any way. He might still have gotten 3K hits, with 400 HRs, 400 2B, and 1,600 RBIs.

Mark McGwire - Big Mac made a semi-confession. He might have been less injured without 'roiding, and maybe gotten to 2,000 hits, which shows just how one-dimensional he was. I mean, six career triples and just two after his rookie season? And at least Palmeiro had a decent glove.

Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, et al. Still not HOFfers and I hope no veterans committee sneaks them in 20 years from now.

Meanwhile, don't believe most ESPN fluffery on this subject.

No wonder so many ESPN readers think Rob Neyer's a douche. Not only Jack Morris, but Keith Hernandez and Dave Parker get a HOF shoutout from him. He even says a "possible case" could be made by unnamed "others" for Kevin Brown.

Jim Caple is another HOF maximalist. Must be something in the ESPN Kool-Aid.

He won't exclude roiders. Wants to vote in the vastly overrated Jack Morris. And Alan Trammell. And Edgar Martinez.

Add Fox's Tracy Ringolsby to the HOF fluffers, specifically the Black Jack Morris fluffers.