A couple of weeks ago, I blogged about my estimates of the likelihood of success of the Suburban, a new startup newspaper in south suburban Dallas, making an attempt to replace the recently-closed Today Newspapers.
I updated that post, and then a friend and former Today employee picked it up and linked to it on his blog, which focuses on south suburban Dallas news, especially Duncanville news.
Well, the publisher of The Suburban, Lisa Bradley, got more than a bit bent out of shape, and decided to fire me; Katy and Ann Hubener of Crescent Real Estate, providing seed money for the venture, agreed.
True, it was not the smartest, most aware thing in the world to do, but I said it. And, yes, it surprised other people whom I told that I was getting fired over that. That said, if I had offered the advice in advance, in private, to one of the Suburban financial supporters, it probably would have been dismissed, anyway. So, here goes.
Update, Aug. 13: Everyone who has given me feedback on my being fired by the Suburban says it's ridiculous. If that means negative PR, so be it.
More seriously, in newspaper job interviews I've had so far, plus talks with others who know the biz, the verdict is unanimous — even if you know how to run a newspaper, a suburban weekly is tougher than an exurban or rural community paper.
I don’t claim to be irreplaceable; the Suburban may do better without me. But, I do know that a lot of Today readers liked me, even when they didn’t always agree with my editorial columns.
If I’m in for a penny, I’m in for a pound. Let’s look at the background of why I offered my estimates of 50-50 chances of success in three months.
First, a bit of Today background.
Today’s parent, the original Suburban, went bankrupt in 1989, let’s remember. Maybe that’s part of why Duncanville’s Royce Brown sold the old Suburban back in 1985. If anybody from Duncanville who knows more on that has information, fire away.
Dick Collins had subsidized the Today group for years. I don’t know if he officially charged rent, for the right hand to bill the left, at Today’s DeSoto office, when he owned both office building and newspapers. Later, after he sold the papers, I believe the rent was below-market/subsidized in some way, and he continued to invest money in the paper.
He continued to do so even after it moved to Duncanville, after he sold Today’s DeSoto office building, at least at first, I think.
And, it still lost money, even with his investment.
Even with belt-tightening that already began back in 2004, when the old People section was canned and we let an editorial position go, by attrition.
And, beyond losing money, it still has debts in various places, including a certain amount to the federal government.
It was still losing money even after all four Best Southwest papers were consolidated into one, and the final round of editorial staff slashing happened. Part of that was recession-related, but not that much.
I’ll take a venture that, on average, over the last 12-18 months of its life, the paper was losing as much as $2,500 a month, and that’s a conservative guess indeed. I don’t know exactly what Today paid in rent for its Duncanville office, but I’m making a rough internal guess.
Lisa Bradley herself, still having at least one uncashable Today paycheck in hand, probably knows even better than I do, from talking to Today owner Kim Petty, just what the situation was like. Or maybe she didn’t inquire that much.
It’s possible that Katy Hubener’s offering free office space, the paper being a free throw (though mileage costs and driver[s] pay at least partially offset the cost of a second-class postage permit) and having a part-time editorial person, may not be enough to fully cover that difference.
But, what news will you get for that? Let alone what sports, once school starts? (And, I told Katy that I was surely the only Today longer-term editorial staffer of the past five years or more who would have done that myself.)
Next, Today’s presence in the market, or ANY newspaper’s presence in the market.
Let’s be honest. South suburban Dallas simply doesn’t support a newspaper.
Marlon Hanson’s Focus? He claims his 33,000 circulation is audited, but didn’t tell me by whom. If it hasn’t been audited by the Audit Bureau of Circulations, it ain’t that real. (And, I’ve looked for an ABC logo in the paper, from time to time.) And, I can do long division; at 33K circ, that’s better market penetration than the Dallas Morning News.
The “Neighbors” Friday tab of the Dallas Morning News? Half the ads in its aren’t from the Best Southwest suburbs. In essence, other editions of “Neighbors” are subsidizing the BSW one. Maybe it still makes a profit. But, with an editor AND assistant editor both making more money than I did at Today, I doubt it.
Plus, I’ve heard rumor that Belo is looking at yet more cuts. If you’ve seen the ads in a recent issue, or lack thereof, that shouldn’t surprise you.
Now, the circulation side.
In one interview I’ve had since Today closed, I told the people who headed that newspaper group, two former Dallas Times-Herald editorial staffers, what the circ numbers were at Today’s individual papers before they consolidated into one, then closed and they rolled their eyes. At the same time, I’ve seen the pages the papers in their group pushed, with the ads they had, and I roll my eyes at how few ads we had, and pages.
South Suburban Dallas businesses simply aren’t buying that many ads.
The Best Southwest is bad enough. And Grand Prairie is worse. If businesses really bought ads in even close proximity to a good small-town paper, a Best Southwest-only paper should easily have 30 pages a week, and Grand Prairie at least 36. In this economic climate. Eighteen months ago, those numbers could have been 36 and 42 pages. And, I’m being conservative, yet allowing for this being a suburban area, not a free-standing small town.
As for trust issues, there’s first the trust issues of Today closing on one day’s notice. Yes, I could have kept my mouth shut with the Suburban, and told Hubener if she still wanted to keep me on, that I could do so in the future. But, after being, in all likelihood, the biggest Today cheerleader in the last remnants of its editorial department its last few months, I said I couldn’t do that any more.
Anyway, back to The Suburban and what it carries over from Today.
Getting advertisers to pay up-front on credit card? My understanding was that, before Today closed, everybody there was supposed to be getting put on credit cards. Didn’t happen there, probably won’t at the Suburban.
But, if some of Duncanville’s city or economic development corporation issues are that “iffy,” well, find non-nutbar alternatives to run for the Duncanville City Council. If Katy Hubener wants change and is tired of state representative campaigns, she can start smaller and do that herself. It might actually turn out to be less expensive than sinking money into the Suburban.
Oh, and directly contravening my thought that they’re biting off too much, the Suburban has added “Waxahachie” to cities of coverage in its masthead.
Finally, to not be too anti-sentimental, Duncanville existed before the original Suburban did. And it will in the future, whatever happens in the way of a newspaper presence or not.
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