Did the Obama stimulus work? Old Scots verdict – ‘not determined’

Contra Christina Romer of Team Obama, the best answer right now is, “we don’t know,” because two-thirds of the stimulus money has yet to be paid out.

No, I can’t prove that the stimulus was back-loaded enough to help more next year, down the pike toward midterm Congressional elections. That said, not all of Reagan’s original tax cut hit in 1981; it had more effect next year, though not enough to help Congressional Republicans.

Politics aside, we will see, by how quickly the country pulls out of recession next year, just how well the stimulus worked.