Is Iran about to break open?

Roger Cohen, a sympathetic observer, and an American journalist with a fair degree of familiarity with the country, says it’s a potential yes.

From what I’ve read about other revolutions, such as 1917 Russia, when national police get antsy about doing their dirty work on crowds, yes, you are approaching a turning point. (In the March revolution, after a day or so, the Cossacks started getting reluctant to enforce too much discipline.)

But, with that national analogy, remember there was a half-successful at best 1905 revolution, too.

Anyway, with the police, what can happen, from the way I see it, is that, whether consciously or not, officers individually start making calculations of the likelihood of a full-blown revolt, followed by the likelihood the revolters will take revenge on them personally. When those thoughts get enough of a foothold, police unit/squad cohesion starts breaking down as it becomes "every man for himself."