Did Iran election debates make May poll worthless?

I suppose that claim of an anonymous Iranian student, writing in a New York Times op-ed, saying May’s Terror Free Tomorrow poll’s findings of a strong Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lead were wiped out by Mir Mousavi’s performance in post-debate presidential debates on TV.

By the Wednesday before the election, Mr. Moussavi was backed by about 44 percent of respondents, while Mr. Ahmadinejad was favored by around 38 percent.

Is the Iranian electorate that volatile? Quite possibly. Did Mousavi do that well in the debates? I don’t know, and that’s the first time I’ve seen that angle raised; Juan Cole didn’t mention it, when he dissed the TFT results.

Also, “Shane M.” doesn’t mention the source of his polling claims. It, too, is something new to my reading. That doesn’t mean it isn’t legitimate, but to throw out specific numbers without a specific source doesn’t boost his credibility in my eyes.

That said, he is right about two things. Many Westerners hold a 30-year-old image of Tehran, and nobody knows what will happen next.

On those two lines, that’s why I continue to look for what Robert Fisk has to say, because he has a current image of Tehran, and as for nobody knowing what will happen next, that includes “Shane M.,” who isn’t guaranteed to know why things are happening now the way they are.