The politically potent Sotomayor choice

Earlier, I blogged about how Obama may have boosted his Hispanic vote percentage for 2012 by as much as 5 percent over 2008 with his Sonia Sotomayor choice.

Let’s just say its 3 percent.

What’s that mean, electoral-vote-wise?

Well, California is totally in the bag. But, it’s not expected to gain any electoral votes. Nevada, up 1 after the 2010 Census, in estimates, will go more strongly for Obama.

But, overall?

Texas should gain three House seats after the 2010 Census, according to Election Data Services. Arizona, Utah, Nevada and Florida will be among other gainers, with one seat each. Great Lakes-bordering New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan are each expected to lose one seat, among various states, with Ohio possibly losing two and Illinois maybe losing one.

And, the possible electoral effect?

If these changes had been in place in 2008, Barack Obama's margin over John McCain in the Electoral College would have been 10 votes smaller.

But, that’s if nothing changes on vote percentages.

On my theory, Arizona becomes very competitive. (Remember, no McCain on the GOP ticket, either.) A safer Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico let Obama move more of his Southwest focus in 2012 to the Grand Canyon State, perhaps enough to take it. Arizona, with 11 EVs after the new Census, wipes out those 10 electoral votes plus 1. And Nevada gives him one more. So, he actually could easily gain 2 EVs.

Texas becomes perhaps as close as 5-percentage-point difference competitive. That's close enough to force a GOP candidate to sweat it out there, and perhaps enough to force Rick Perry into the national picture, as either Prez or Veep candidate for the GOP.

That said, there are Hispanics and there are Hispanics. Republican-leaning Cuban-Americans are unlikely to identify with Sotomayor anyway, so Obama gets no help in Florida. And, non-Cuban Caribbean Hispanics may be more favorable to her than Mexican or Central American ones, meaning the “bump” in Nevada or Arizona for Obama may not be too big.

At the same time, if Obama’s choice boosts Hispanic turnout, since that leaned 2-1 for him a year ago, he doesn’t need 5 extra percentage points of Hispanic support to benefit.

So, two electoral votes; three easier states. GOP has to break at least a little more sweat on Texas while trying to regain Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana.

And, swing-state Missouri, though it does not have a large Hispanic population, has just enough, and was just close enough in 2008, that it would be leaning slightly Obama.

A definite gain.

And, with more Democrats than Republicans defending Senate seats in 2012, a gain with down-race coattails, too.