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March 19, 2009

Let AIG fail? Here’s the case for

Ari J. Officer has one central point: It would lance the still-inflated credit bubble faster than anything.

Beyond that, Officer says AIG’s plight may not be so bad as believed, primarily because it may have multiply-insured the same credit default swaps, kind of like selling insurance on the same house to multiple investors.

Given everything else we’re learning about AIG, this would in no way surprise me, were it true.

Finally, if CDSs are a zero-sum game, Officer says SOMEBODY wins if AIG loses.
if the number of institutions involved in swap-trading were limited to those trading with AIG, then AIG is probably not too big to fail. We have to worry about chains of claims. Just because AIG dealt only with banks does not mean those banks did not rewrite similar contracts with hedge funds.

So, let’s let it fail. Fuck Tim the Douche Bag Geithner and his boss, Mr. former No. 2 AIG Senator.

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