Why McCain is closing on Obama; why it won’t be enough

Why he’s closing
Per CNN, it’s probably because fewer people associate him with Bush. Of course, I’m sure some late Obama commercials are in the pipeline to address the “slippage” in that issue.

Why it won’t be enough
Also per CNN, it’s because almost 60 percent of voters think he’s too negative in his attacks on Obama.

That said, going negative is a quick way to make up lost ground, but usually hits diminishing returns quickly.

Beyond that, the comeback task is herculean, as FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver notes. From now to Election Day, McCain has to make up ground twice as fast as Obama did from early September-early October.

And, without some earth-shaking outside event, that ain’t happening.
Bill Ayers, Joe the Plumber, and Sarah Palin shooting wolves isn’t doing it.

Nothing short of Osama bin Laden’s capture (and, no, he’s not on ice; Bush would have trotted him out either four or two years ago), or photos of Obama snorting lines of coke off Joe Biden’s bare ass is going to change that.

That said, Obama is right to guard against complacency. Not just for his own sake, but, unlike Shrub in midterm elections, Obama knows that keeping his followers fired up can help down-ballot races.