Intrade Sept. 20 — Palin on ice; Lupe Valdez campaign and DMN mudslinging

Dallas Morning News op-ed writer Rod Dreher plays bigoted dirty tricks with Lupe Valdez (below)

With Sarah Palin having fundraisers and other appearances cancelled by the McCain-Palin campaign, I offer 50-50 odds that she’s on ice until the vice-presidential debate, given all the different reasons she has for being on ice right now.

If Palin’s rise was worth a boost to Senate GOP hopes of stanching the bleeding, as the Post details here, then how much damage does the bursting of her bubble cause?

I’ll give the Dems a 20 percent chance now of hitting 58 seats, Joementum included. I would still love to see them hit 60, Lieberman counted, to see the carnage of how much Harry Reid would kiss Lieberman’s butt on cloture issues. Hey, I like schadenfreude.

Per the Post story, Liddy Dole’s re-election race in North Carolina will be a harbinger of Senate Dem chances.

That said, let’s go to FiveThirtyEight.com and Electoral-Vote for some presidential and Senate look-see.

The two sites differ pretty significantly on the presidential race. As of early Saturday, E-V was at 265-252 McCain, with Pennsylvania tied. 538 breaks it out at 303-235 Obama, a 50-vote difference. It lists PA as “safely Dem,” the second-highest level, and sees North Carolina less firmly in the Republican camp. I think 538 is a bit too optimistic; it all depends on how the rush of economic-related news plays out politically.

Neither site offers much hope to Rick Noriega against John Cornyn; 538 rates it 93 percent likely Cornyn will win. IMO, I still say Noreiga didn’t do much early other than running on his military career, and that didn’t work for John Kerry in 2004. And, he didn’t have Watts’ personal money to spend on ads. Wrong candidate, Dems, and not the first time in recent years.

Dallas County Sheriff? Earlier this week, I offered an official personal endorsement of incumbent Democratic Sheriff Lupe Valdez, or more, an anti-endorsement of GOP challenger Lowell Cannaday.

I stand firmly behind that, despite, on the horse-race side, knowing that Dallas Morning News editorial writer Rod Dreher’s offensive wedge politics over a sensitivity to sexual preferences survey the Sheriff’s Department used for the first time but that the Dallas PD has used for 15 years.

Even for you, Rod, this is a cheap-shit tactic and you know it, Rod.

Drop Rod a line.

And, as I blogged earlier today, this appears to be the Dallas Metroplex’s version of the “vast right-wing conspiracy” ginning up here.