Intrade, Gadfly style

Yes, “Intrade” is probably copyrighted by the folks who started the concept but, short of “Horsetrade” or something like that, no eye-catching name has come to me yet.

OK, let’s keep this simple, and in percentages.

First, even though Palin is “started the concept,” that’s not the same as her getting the boot from the ticket.

So, Palin withdrawal/booting odds? 6 percent. With Schmuck Talk Express™ himself striving to quash Troopergate, she's not going away.

Obama vs. McCain? 55-45. I’ll tackle a guesstimate on third-party percentages and such starting in a week, but that will come; can’t have just the duopoly listed.

For more insight yourself, Electoral-Vote is invaluable.

FiveThirtyEight.com is better in some ways, with Intrade-type odds lines. It also isn’t afraid to critique things like ad quality from the presidential candidates.

Meanwhile, of course, the real Intrade is all about wagering, right? Well, some high muckety-mucks from various European Union countries and the EU bureaucracy have also For more insight yourself, placed their bets.

Cloture-proof Democratic Senate? 10-90. (I’m deliberately putting that on the low side, but, honestly, I don’t think it’s going to happen.)

And, what if the Dems get 59 Senators? Rather than boot Joementum out of the caucus, will they instead beg and plead with him to make 60? Or, will they try to get some GOPer to turn… hmmm.

On the Texas state level, now…

Cornyn-Noriega: 57-43. Sorry, but I just don’t feel Rick Noriega burning up the bushes. Psst., Rick… like McCain, you have to run on something more than military service. (FiveThirtyEight.com lists this seat as strongly leaning Cornyn.)

Noriega has not translated his Lege service into a winning campaign message. Also, he does not have Mikal Watts' money, nor much from the DSCC, and also does not have Watts' other pluses, which I thought Noriega would have transcended by now.

Electoral-Vote’s Senate tracker covers Cornyn-Noriega and all other Senate races. Per its link to Texas Senate race polling, you can see why I remain bullish on Cornyn — but NOT personally, of course!

Dems regaining the Texas House? 40-60

And, here in Dallas County?

Valdez-Cannady for sheriff: (Again, a pet peeve — why do we elect sheriffs?) 50-50. This race boils down to what Dallas power broker John Wiley Price does or does not say or do for Valdez.

And, a commodities shot:

Oil below $100/bbl this year? 20-80.

The Guardian tells us OPEC, next week, will fight hard and plot strategy to keep it above $100/bbl.

And, on the personal side?

Odds of me voting Obama instead of McKinney? Less than 10 percent, and that's charitable.

Tune in next week!