Chili’s avoids a chill

Last week, upon the closure of Bennigan’s restaurants, I pondered what eateries might be next, and noted that Brinker’s was high on the list of many analysts.

Well, with a 49 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit, Brinker’s obviously hurting.

Well, non-Chili’s restaurants in the chain are, at least.

Macaroni Grill, different story. Brinker is selling its majority interest, and if Chili’s is doing OK, that means Macaroni and other Brinker restaurants ain’t. However, analysts don’t like that Brinker is keeping any share in Macaroni, which means it must really be stinking.

And, Bennigan’s appears to be a harbinger of recession-related restaurant weakness.

The Dallas Morning News story notes Bennigan’s bankruptcy filing was one of four major restaurant bankruptcies during the first seven months of 2008, compared with just two during all of 2007.

“In periods of stress in the industry before, we typically have not seen more than six bankruptcies in a year,” said Ron Paul, president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based market research firm. “And we already have four.”

“We’re well on our way to the most we’ve seen in a single year” since the 1980s, he said, when the economy was roiled by tumbling real estate values and the S&L crisis.

Back to Brinker’s.

Frankly, I’d worry about On the Border, too. It’s got plenty of competition in the Mexican restaurant world, from grab-and-gos like Chipotle below it to, here in Texas, a place like Matt’s Rancho Martinez, a cut above in quality.