Post does Veep prognostication – and fails (updated)

Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray take their guesstimate shots at who Barack Obama and John McCain will name as vice presidential nominees.

The duo stumbles from the start by claiming polls show Schmuck Talk Express™ doing better against Obama than against Clinton, so much better than he wouldn’t need to consider Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, whom they rank only No. 4 among the top five.

The two ignore, or are unaware of, the fact that in Florida, Democrats now outnumber Republicans among registered Hispanic voters. (The story’s worth a read in and of itself, as Florida Congressional races will also be affected, including the possibility of toppling some Cuban-American Republicans.)

And, since Florida has more electoral votes than either Tim Pawlenty’s Minnesota or Rob Portman’s Ohio, Crist has to be considered No.1.

Of course, this bungling on analyzing McCain’s potential choice, and needs, is nothing compared to Cillizza’s and Murray’s bungling on the Democratic side.

In a nutshell, no way in hell Hillary Clinton is running with Obama. She would be 69 after two Obama terms, and yes, age bias is greater against women than men. Second, the way she’s running out the string would almost indicate she hopes Obama loses the general, so she can bring back the “electability” argument in 2012.

As for other choices? Sam Nunn’s a retread and probably wouldn’t help that much with Southern white voters.

That said, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland would help indeed with Midwestern white voters.

And, why was Big Bill Richardson not even on the list? He brings in the Hispanic vote, Western states vote (especially with Libertarian Bob Barr in the race, much of the West will be in play), and offers foreign policy gravitas.

That said, the Post writers do get it right on Obama’s best option, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Putting a woman, a governor and the leader of a more conservative Midwestern state on the ticket covers a lot of bases. I said this months ago.

To cover Hispanics and the West, Obama could make an advance announcement that Richardson will be his Secretary of State-designee, then.