Mexican economic future not on candidate radar screens

Neither border-stater John McCain, nor Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, in either their ignorance of, or refusal to discuss, Peak Oil, has had comment No. 1 on the possible tanking of the Mexican economy within five years.

The continuing surge in oil prices is fueled in fair part by declining Mexican production .

A new Goldman Sachs prediction that oil prices could rise to $150 to $200 within two years seemed to motivate much of Tuesday's buying, although a falling dollar and increasing concerns about declining crude production in Mexico and Russia contributed, analysts say.

Mexican production, year-over-year, was off 8 percent the first quarter of this year. The country is expected to become an oil importer by 2015.

And, given the Mexican economy’s dependence on Pemex, that could send a new wave of illegal immigrants across our southern border.

Since Pemex is government-owned, that’s reason one the decline will hurt the economy in the longer term, especially if the Mexican government isn’t banking the “windfall profits” it’s getting right now.

And, since Pemex revenues go into the Mexican government’s general revenue stream, helping fund government welfare payments for NAFTA-displaced peasant farmers and other folk, when Mexico becomes an oil importer, the economy will at least stutter, if not stagger or even crash.