Delta-Northwest merger – overall bad for consumers from where I sit

Between the Federal Aviation Administration crackdown on safety, airlines in general packing planes even tighter due to fuel costs, and the likelihood of a Continental-United Merger to follow on its heels, I’m pretty skeptical about the consumer value of the Delta-Northwest merger.

For example, in this deal, Delta claims it won’t close any hubs of either airline, but that’s doubtful. I have to think the Cincinnati hub will be downgraded to a semi-hub, if not written off. Ditto for Salt Lake City. Northwest has hubs in Minneapolis, Detroit Metro and Memphis.

Sorry, Delta-Plus, but ain’t no effing way you’re keeping hubs in both Memphis and Cincy. Just ain’t happening. One’s being eliminated entirely and the other’s being downgraded. My money is on Memphis getting the ax and Cincy being downgraded.

Detroit will also be downgraded, I think. Given that Toyota now makes more cars in the U.S. than Ford or Chrysler, and may catch GM within a decade, not to mention Nissan and Honda’s U.S. operations, the combined airlines have fewer reasons to have a hub in the former Motor City, not to mention it continuing to lose population like a sieve. BFD if the airport itself built a new terminal wing just a few years ago; that was stupid.

Atlanta is obviously safe. So, too, is JFK. If Detroit Metro is downgraded, than Minneapolis-St. Paul is safe. A western presence will keep Salt Lake City safe, too.

Of course, this may not get past government antitrust regulators, especially in the aforementioned safety environment. And, given already-expressed disgruntlement, you may see a Northwest pilots’ strike if there is a merger.

The Northwest pilots union said in a statement: “This agreement clearly disadvantages NWA pilots both with respect to economic issues and seniority list integration.

“The NWA MEC will use all resources available to aggressively oppose the merger.”

Beyond that, this page points out Delta’s lousy past history of developing hubs. Surrendering LAX to United? Surrendering D/FW (where I live, and I know the history), to American? Not smart.

Assume that a United-Continental merger also closes a hub or two. Why an unmerged United has hubs in both Los Angeles and San Francisco, especially with a third western hub in Denver, is nonsensical. David Grossman of USA Today recommends it look at scaling back at LAX and Denver, as well as Washington Dulles.

As for Continental, Houston would stay as a hub, given the airline’s strong Mexico, and Latin American, routes. Newark isn’t ideal, but I don’t think a combined United-Continental would give that up, especially if Dulles were killed as a hub.

Cleveland? For the same reasons as Detroit, it doesn’t make sense as a hub. Especially in a merged airline with a hub at O’Hare, it would get killed.

So, if the government approves both mergers, you’re going to have a lot fewer options flying out the Rust Belt or Mid-South, in all likelihood.