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March 04, 2008

Your Tuesday financial woes

For the past several weeks, on the Street, it seems like on Mondays, the bulls have had a restful weekend, take the weekend’s “no news is good news” bit in the teeth and run with it. Then, Tuesday, reality sinks in; this week, a 150-point drop in the market by noon.

The reality always has some specific facts. The biggest one today?

The recent injection of sovereign wealth funds into Citigroup Then, Tuesday, may not save it:
Citigroup shares dropped more than 6 percent Tuesday after the head of Dubai International Capital said that Mideast sovereign wealth funds may fail to save Citigroup unless more cash is pumped into the bank.

Samir al-Ansari, chief executive of the $13 billion government-owned investment firm, said at a private equity conference that it will take more than the combined efforts of the Gulf's wealthiest investors -- the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Kuwait Investment Authority and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal -- to save the U.S.-based bank.

So, Ansari is trolling for money money to bail out Dubai. Do Arab (or Chinese) funds think Citi can be rescued, or do they look at such an attempt as pounding sand down a rathole? Even if they think that is likely, are they attached too much to what would in that case be “bad money” to chase it anyway?

If analysts are right that Citi could have to write off as much as another $18 billion, on top of $18 billion written down in January. If I’m the manager of a sovereign wealth fund, I’d wait for Citi’s stock to drop further, at least, along with any additional shoe-dropping, before I buy in.

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