Jim Jubak says a credit crunch is definitely here. The Dow agrees, with a drop of more than 200 points, the third losing Friday in a row.
I’ll up my recession odds to 2-5, from 1-3, by 12 months from now; I’ll stay with even odds by January 2009. Jubak thinks enough consumers will avoid enough of a home-related ding to their wallets to keep the economy afloat enough. I disagree, especially if oil beats the $80 mark next summer, which it should. To increase much faster than inflation, it will have to hit $85, but it could well do that; the $80 point could be a symbolic barrier.
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