NBA 2007-2008 preview

First, barring injury, I’ll take the Spurs as the favored team to win the Western Conference again, and thus actually persuade me to consider them as a dynasty. (See my previous post on this subject.

No big free agency issues, and though they’re the league’s oldest team, if they’re as good at containing minutes last year as they were this year, that generally shouldn’t be a problem. (Michael Finley possibly moving on is not a ‘big’ free-agent issue; that said, I think Manu is better coming off the bench anyway; he has classic sixth-man energy and craziness.)

Add in the fact that Manu seems to be OK with the sixth man role, and the quantum leap that Parker took in the Finals, and you have an even more offensively diverse team than ever before.

The only concern I see, and it is age-related: Bruce Bowen. At some point, advancing years are going to take away some defensive reaction speed, especially lateral foot speed. How much, and when?

Bowen, the second-oldest member of the Spurs after Robert Horry, turned 36 on the night of Game 4 against the Cavs. And, loss of foot-speed reaction time will affect him more than an interior-oriented defensive player like Horry. Horry, Finley and Brent Barry are the other three real oldsters on the team; 2 minutes less per game for each next year, if necessary as part of keeping them fresher, should be the only big adjustment. Elson and Oberto together showed enough this year that Pop will be OK with lowering Horry’s time; Manu can soak up Barry and Finley minutes.

As for the rest of the league? Well, let’s take a brief look around the West first.

The Suns? Somebody’s moving, but who, where and for what? And, speaking of old, how much is in Nash’s tank?

Jazz? On the rise, as the playoffs showed, and will continue to move upward. Not enough to catch the Spurs, though.

Mavs? First, is Dirk the Brad Lidge of the NBA now? I want to find out in next year’s playoffs. Otherwise, I’m not convinced this team is ready to get over the hump, or even the conference hump.

Rockets? Can Yao and T-Mac stay together healthy the whole year? How much will the Howard-for-James trade help them? Or not?

Lakers? Please. Kwame will get no better, Kobe and Lamar will mesh no better, and Bynum won’t project much better.

On to the East.

The Cavs did plow through a relatively weak conference. Problem is, some teams will get better this year, as teams, more than Lebron as an individual.

Take Toronto. A young team with several good players. How good of a coach can Sam Mitchell be? I could see this team in next year’s Finals.

The Bulls? Could certainly see them there. They’re my favorite right now.

Nets? Aging

Heat? Most the team outside of Wade again. Miami blew its salary cap for Shaq and the one title. (Speaking of that, I loved the ABC broadcasters debating Shaq/Duncan, with the comments about Shaq’s lack of self-care. If he keeps his weight at 320 and does a real offseason program, he’s still destroying one-quarter of the league, easily dominating one-half beyond that, and consistently challenging the final one-quarter.)

Orlando? Improving, but not with Toronto’s growth curve. And, if the rumors about Grant Hill to Toronto are true …

So, the best prediction is Spurs-Bulls next June. Spurs in six.

Now, the health of the league.

Will David Stern wake up and smell some coffee about stinky basketball, playoffs dragging out, etc.?

My suggestions, more tinkering than radical.

Move the first round back to three-of-five. Eliminate some excessive travel days.

And, resize the court. Make it two feet wider, and add one foot depth behind the backboard on each baseline, kind of like international hockey. No, a foot isn’t a lot, but once players got used to it, I think it would open up a lot of playmaking angles.