The world is currently producing more oil annually than it is replacing with new reserves. That sobering conclusion emerges from a new survey of global liquids reserves published by Energy Intelligence.
In contrast to the gradual rise in global oil reserves that has been reported annually in most surveys based on public sources, the new assessment shows that the trend in worldwide liquids reserves is actually one of stagnation and modest decline. The PIW Reserves Survey shows global oil reserves declining by almost 13 billion barrels, or 0.9%, over the last two years to 1.459 trillion bbl at the end of 2006 on a "proved plus probably" basis. Global oil reserves are liquid hydrocarbons, natural gas liquids, tar sands and crude oil, that are economically recoverable at current prices.
The PIW survey uses a somewhat broader definition of reserves than the other surveys based on public sources and it applies that definition consistently and systematically across all countries, fully accounting for production declines and new additions.
No, ethanol, with 20 percent less energy content than gasoline, won’t solve this. (Besides, global supplies of the natural gas that make modern ammonia-based fertilizers are also projected by many analysts to decline within a decade, maybe less.)
No, Americans need to wake up and recognize that the old economy just isn’t going to be the same for a lot longer.
Meanwhile, the mainstream media’s punditry crew are and remain clueless about this. Remember, America could start grinding to a halt before global warming — not that we should stop being concerned about global warming.
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