August 20, 2019

Dem ---> Trump 2016 Rust Belt voters undervoting 2020?

How many cases of this will happen, I don't know.

But, you have blue collar workers saying he's a fraud on labor issues and older women disgusted at his morals. Meanwhile, not only in the Rust Belt but around the nation, Trump's Labor Department has pissed off the Building Trades Union.

And now, US Steel has said it will lay off 200 workers in Michigan, likely for more than six months.
The lay-offs call into question claims President Donald Trump has made about the resurgence of the domestic steel industry. Last week in Pennsylvania, Trump said his 25% tariff on foreign imports has turned a “dead” business into a “thriving” enterprise. 
Domestic steel prices did rise in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s tariffs. But they have fallen dramatically amid improved supplies and weakening demand from the auto and farm machinery sectors. 
Prices of hot-rolled coil are down nearly 37% from their 2018 peak. 
U.S. Steel’s stock price has plunged 73% since March 1, 2018, when Trump announced his decision to crack down on foreign imports.
There you go. 

On Twitter, some Trump Trainer talked about plans for Nucor and one other company to expand. I informed him back that Nucor, showing its own weakness, whacked a bunch of its steel prices yesterday (and then, as hacks, go No True Scotsman about "real capitalism"). Said person didn't address labor fraud or farm tariffs, though. And, while we can agree to disagree on democratic Socialism, once you start complaining about "identity politics," then about persons' sexual or personal lives? Nope. Whether you identify as religious or not, then you're just another Religious Right conservative (and possible racist). Also, he probably has zero experience with actually working in the steel industry or on a farm.

Meanwhile, refudiating him, Trump staff is now too afraid to meet with Minnesota farmers. (This is not to justify threats of violence.) When the head of the state Farm Bureau calls you out as "insulting" farmers, you're losing it, dude. A big bone of contention is that NASS, USDA's data arm, is allegedly fudging, or even flat-out lying, about production estimates, per the full story. He's also pissing off Midwestern corn farmers over ethanol. (That's not to justify turning hydrocarbon-based fertilizers, laundered through corn, into a energy-losing replacement for hydrocarbons.)

Many of these people are not likely to vote Democratic, for a variety of reasons. They may have burned out on Obama, voting for him with reluctance in his second term. But, if Trump continues looking like a fraud on farm and labor issues — both important in the Rust Belt — and a boor and bully on social issues, they will stay home.

(Said Twitter interlocutor, with his "socialism" comment, also missed that main point — that I was just looking at these voters staying home, not voting Democratic in 2020. And, if that's the level of thinking of many "man in the street" younger Trump backers, they could be in for a rude awakening.)

Remember that it doesn't take much to tilt things. In 2016, Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by less than 1 popular vote percentage point. Their 46 electoral votes would have elected Hillary Clinton.

This may well help House Democrats.

Senate Dems? Not so much. Only three states close to the Rust Belt have GOP incumbents running in 2020, with full Senate battle details here. That includes freshman Joni Ernst in swing state Iowa, Mitch the Turtle in Kentucky and freshman Shelley Moore Capito in West (by god) Virginia. Ernst might be vulnerable on farm and tariff issues. Stretching the Rust Belt further into the Farm Belt, Democrats have an outside shot at the Kansas seat being left vacant by the retiring Pat Roberts.

The flip side of THAT is that it may increase the likelihood of presidential undervoting, or even more, marginal Republicans staying home entirely.

That said, whoever the Democrats wind up nominating for president could blow this. Ditto for Congressional Dems. And the DNCC could back a bunch of War Democrats anyway.


I wonder how a professional Bernie ---> Trump spinner from the Rust Belt like H.A. Goodman, who probably never really was that pro-Sanders in the first place, is spinning this?


Or, as weird as his upward surge is, Andrew Yang's Yang Gang might just expand with yet more disgruntled Trump voters.

Iowa is a closed caucuses state, so no help there. But New Hampshire is an semi-closed primary state; it's open to crossovers is the key point.

Just in case Yang DOES keep surging? Let's look more at that primary calendar.

Just 18 days after New Hampshire, South Carolina is an open primary.

Then, just a week after that comes Super Tuesday.
Alabama is open.
Arkansas is open.
California is semi-closed in the same way New Hampshire is.
Colorado is semi-closed.
Maine is full closed.
Massachusetts is semi-closed.
Minnesota is closed.
North Carolina is semi-closed.
Oklahoma is semi-closed.
Tennessee is open.
Texas is open.
Utah is closed.
Vermont is open.
Virginia is open.

Note the number of open primaries in southern states where allegedly ex-Trump Yang Gang numbers have been growing?

1 comment:

Smokey_the cat said...

I've said this a million times. If someone in the democratic party (running for president) got it through their thick skull that there was more to Pennsylvania than Philadelphia and a couple of panicked trips to Pittsburgh they could take this state back. The democrats are snobs and that includes Bernie Sanders. Trump is an idiot but he campaigned well here and in Ohio. If Sanders does no campaigning outside of Pittsburgh then he's not getting my primary vote. His attitude of going to West Virginia and thinking that covers western PA is stupid and he should know better. Trump is going to milk their disdain for western PA and Ohio like a cow. Just watch- oh wait- it won't matter will it? They'll win Texas after all...