June 24, 2019

The TrumpTrain "economic miracle" is about to jump the tracks


Is the economy worse now than Jan. 20, 2019? Via Zero Hedge, unemployment stats say yes.
Wouldn’t it be horrible if the number of Americans without a job was higher today than it was during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009?  Well, that is actually true.
Paging the #TrumpTrain — economic cleanup on Aisle 5; toxic spill is spreading! Michael Snyder adds that, because states have continued to tighten unemployment eligibility, the spike in filings mean that it's really a BIG problem.



Related? The workforce participation rate remains at 63 percent. Per the graph at left, it hasn't budged more than half a percentage point or two one way or the other for almost seven years.

The conclusion seems right. Many people still aren't that financially ready to beat another recession, which odds indicate are likely to happen soon. Worse? Trump, other than wanting to fire Powell as Fed head, is likely to pull a 1920s and double down on tariffs.

The coming recession, without that, probably won't be that bad. But, Trump's volatility will make it worse. How that plays out, and is played, in the 2020 election will be interesting indeed.

The larger problems are structural and, as they have been for 40 years, caused in various degrees by both duopoly parties. Eric Levitz from the NY Mag says but "prime age" labor participation rate is up, without asking why this is the case, if true. Maybe more 20somethings can't afford college? Maybe more mothers are now working mothers? 

Nor does he try to square this with the overall participation rate still being stagnant.

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