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John Jay, by Gilbert Stuart/From Wikipedia |
Yes, you read that header correctly. Of course,
that’s not reality.
But, in the next of my occasional series of
posts on counterfactual history, and especially counterfactual political
histories, he IS the first Secretary of State.
And, there’s solid actual history behind it.
In fact, George Washington offered John Jay the
position first. Only after he turned it down did Washington look to Thomas
Jefferson.
So, what might have turned out differently had
Jay taken the offer rather than eventually accepting the Chief Justiceship at
the Supreme Court.
First, I’ll say that Jay stays two
full terms, ingratiates himself more with Washington, and, in the process, builds
up a Middle Atlantic power base. Among the side results, John Adams gets more
marginalized among possible Federalist successors to Washington. To some
degree, Hamilton may. More on him below.
Jefferson certainly gets more
marginalized, as well more radicalized by remaining in France during the Terror
and making some impolitic statements about it.
As a result, accepting the truth
that Washington won’t, and deciding he wants a national-level political future,
Jay forms the first political alliance of America, before Jefferson, meeting
with Henry Lee,
aka “Light
Horse Harry” Lee and suggesting him for the vice presidency in a “team.”
It works.
Hamilton remains outside the new
government, at least at first. However, he maintains more cordial relations
with Jay than he did with Adams in reality.
Like Adams did, Jay avoids war with
France, but smartly vetoes Alien and Sedition Acts legislation.
Result? Jefferson looks for
partners in 1800 and lays on Burr, as in reality. Both parties court Adams for
a dignified version of an “endorsement,” but he passes.
Hamilton works to negate Burr in New
York, get non-Adams Federalists in New England, and succeeds. He opts to remain,
again, outside of government The country finds a need for a 12th Amendment as
Jay and Lee tie. Lee gracefully persuades the House to elect Jay; Hamilton
works to this end, too.
Lee runs in 1804 against Madison.
Elbridge Gerry thinks Madison is not anti-federalist enough and runs on his
own. The race goes to the House and Lee wins.
Hamilton, meanwhile, eventually
decides to work to become president of the Bank of the United States, having
generated less personal antagonism from Burr in 1800 than in reality. As the
first Bank of the United States faces renewal issues ahead, and Hamilton is
unsure of how “sound” Lee is, from his point of view, on the Bank, he looks for
moderate anti-Federalists/Democratic-Republicans, as well as Federalists, with
whom to deal. This includes “Federalist” collaborator James Madison.
At this point, I will break off the
alternative history, as the degree of speculation grows.
But, had Jay, with hindsight, seen
how little work the Supreme Court would do, seen how the Secretary of State
position could become a “launching pad,” and decided he wanted to launch
himself past Adams, all of this actually could have happened.