March 15, 2016

Last thoughts before #SecondTuesday

Yes, it's actually the third Tuesday, but, this is the second big primaries Tuesday.

Bernie Sanders is closing the gap in all the Rust Belt states with Hillary Clinton, so that he's in striking distance in Ohio and that Illinois and Missouri are both statistical ties. Hillary's up big in Florida and North Carolina, but, per Michigan, I think those polls are outliers.

I expect Sanders to win Missouri and one or the other of Ohio and Illinois. Illinois and Missouri are both open; Ohio, along with North Carolina, is semi-open. Florida is a closed primary.

Bernie's got little chance in Florida, not because the black vote, nor because of Cuban-Americans who think him too Castro-friendly. Rather, IMO, older Jewish voters will love Hillary's hawkishness on the Middle East vs. Sanders' semi-hawkishness.

Moral victories need to become victories more often, but if Sanders can hold to within 15 percentage points on both the Southern states, especially if he wins all three of the others, it will be a big day indeed.

But, that in turn means that I, like Brains, agree that Sanders isn't bowing out tomorrow.

Which, in turn provides more reasons to say GFY to Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the Democratic National Committee, to Markos of Daily Kos and his "unity behind Hillary" push at the Great Orange Satan, and the the MSM punditry.

As for Clinton, as Politico notes in detail, even for a politician, she's managed to find the exact center within the Democratic leadership on popularity of issue after issue.

Yes, politicians are politicians; Bernie loves him some Big Ag and guns, along with F-35s. But, he's still a lot "cleaner."

Actually, as Politico notes, on gay marriage, or opposition to it, her original position was kind of principled — and very religiously-based. Add in her attendance at The Family, and if it is a Clinton-Trump race, the Democrats will actually be running a candidate more favorable to the Religious Right.

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